* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST CP952015 09/16/15 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 22 24 28 32 41 50 58 63 67 70 72 74 V (KT) LAND 20 22 24 28 32 41 50 58 63 67 70 72 74 V (KT) LGE mod 20 21 21 23 25 30 36 44 53 64 75 85 95 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 2 3 9 10 12 11 11 11 13 13 11 10 3 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 1 0 0 3 3 0 -4 -2 -1 -1 -2 -3 SHEAR DIR 132 9 35 65 85 121 155 152 156 132 112 98 80 SST (C) 29.9 29.9 30.0 30.0 30.1 30.2 30.3 30.3 30.2 30.0 29.8 29.7 29.7 POT. INT. (KT) 164 164 165 165 166 166 166 166 166 166 164 162 162 200 MB T (C) -52.0 -52.0 -51.5 -51.2 -51.3 -51.4 -51.3 -51.5 -51.4 -51.1 -51.3 -51.2 -51.5 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 9 8 9 10 11 11 11 10 10 10 700-500 MB RH 80 81 79 78 77 68 59 52 50 56 66 70 67 MODEL VTX (KT) 0 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 62 65 62 61 65 75 91 94 96 99 108 106 116 200 MB DIV 84 59 60 56 60 38 19 27 18 43 64 83 81 700-850 TADV -2 -3 -3 -2 -1 0 0 -1 -2 -4 0 1 4 LAND (KM) 2004 2050 2100 2111 2127 2124 2095 2045 1904 1677 1398 1167 1022 LAT (DEG N) 9.2 9.6 9.9 10.6 11.2 12.7 13.9 14.7 15.4 16.1 17.1 18.6 20.3 LONG(DEG W) 173.0 174.0 174.9 175.6 176.3 177.3 177.7 177.6 176.5 174.5 172.1 170.4 169.5 STM SPEED (KT) 11 10 9 9 9 7 5 5 8 11 12 10 9 HEAT CONTENT 55 59 59 55 52 55 63 66 58 55 63 59 38 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 530 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 63.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL -1. -1. -1. 0. 6. 15. 25. 33. 38. 41. 44. 46. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 5. 5. 5. 5. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 6. 5. 5. 5. 5. 4. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -10. -11. -12. -13. -14. -14. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 5. 5. 5. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 8. 12. 21. 30. 38. 43. 47. 50. 52. 54. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX CP952015 INVEST 09/16/15 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.2 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 144.8 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.9 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 56.0 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 63.8 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.4 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 48.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 77.6 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 45% is 3.4 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 29% is 3.4 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 21% is 3.4 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP952015 INVEST 09/16/15 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##