* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * NINE AL092015 09/16/15 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 27 28 29 29 28 28 26 26 30 32 35 V (KT) LAND 25 26 27 28 29 29 28 28 26 26 30 32 35 V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 25 26 25 24 23 21 20 19 19 DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 6 10 16 22 20 28 25 26 27 26 22 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 6 9 9 4 2 8 3 9 3 5 -1 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 279 254 251 263 261 259 263 245 229 236 209 N/A N/A SST (C) 28.0 27.9 28.0 28.1 28.1 28.3 28.6 28.9 29.3 29.6 29.8 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 136 134 135 136 137 140 144 149 156 161 166 N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 128 126 126 126 126 129 132 135 140 146 150 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.5 -53.9 -54.1 -54.2 -54.0 -54.3 -54.4 -54.7 -54.9 -55.2 -55.1 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 7 8 8 8 8 8 9 9 10 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 56 58 57 57 58 54 53 56 57 57 54 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 11 11 11 11 11 10 8 8 7 7 6 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 36 41 36 30 29 31 38 40 41 49 45 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 75 88 60 49 53 11 4 15 29 31 27 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 0 3 5 6 6 2 0 1 -4 0 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1426 1466 1511 1554 1600 1682 1746 1766 1753 1641 1516 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 15.0 15.7 16.4 17.0 17.6 18.8 20.0 21.1 22.2 23.2 24.2 N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 44.4 44.7 45.0 45.2 45.4 46.1 47.3 48.4 49.4 50.8 52.5 N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 7 8 7 6 7 7 8 8 7 9 10 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 27 19 11 10 10 15 17 23 34 36 32 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):310/ 8 CX,CY: -5/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 789 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 49.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 6. 11. 17. 22. 26. 29. 31. 32. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 2. -2. -6. -10. -12. -13. -14. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -9. -9. -10. -11. -12. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 9. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -2. -4. -4. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 1. 1. 5. 7. 10. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL092015 NINE 09/16/15 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.0 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.7 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 66.2 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 101.6 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.4 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 15.4 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 65.0 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 37.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 19% is 1.6 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 10% is 1.4 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 6% is 1.2 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 5% is 1.5 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL092015 NINE 09/16/15 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL092015 NINE 09/16/2015 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)