* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL952015 09/16/15 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 30 34 38 46 53 58 60 61 62 64 69 V (KT) LAND 25 27 30 34 38 46 53 58 60 61 62 64 69 V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 28 30 33 41 49 54 57 58 60 62 67 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 2 3 4 8 4 3 3 6 10 11 9 9 6 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 -2 -5 -5 -2 4 3 0 4 1 1 0 SHEAR DIR 34 308 307 338 357 243 211 264 291 311 329 1 41 SST (C) 28.1 28.1 28.2 28.2 28.1 27.9 27.7 27.5 27.5 27.7 27.8 28.0 28.1 POT. INT. (KT) 138 138 139 139 137 134 132 129 129 133 134 135 136 ADJ. POT. INT. 136 135 136 134 132 129 126 122 123 126 126 124 123 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -53.6 -53.9 -53.9 -53.4 -53.9 -53.6 -54.1 -53.8 -54.1 -53.9 -54.2 -54.0 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 7 6 6 7 7 7 7 7 7 700-500 MB RH 70 71 73 71 73 78 77 74 71 69 62 61 58 MODEL VTX (KT) 8 9 9 10 9 10 11 11 11 10 10 9 10 850 MB ENV VOR 30 36 33 32 28 30 31 22 4 -5 1 -1 9 200 MB DIV -9 11 45 61 60 103 61 49 41 24 22 28 41 700-850 TADV -3 -3 -1 -2 -2 0 -1 -2 -2 -3 4 2 3 LAND (KM) 1342 1418 1497 1562 1629 1766 1930 1953 1882 1827 1806 1811 1849 LAT (DEG N) 11.1 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 29.3 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 9 9 9 8 8 8 8 8 8 10 9 7 5 HEAT CONTENT 19 25 24 19 21 24 20 20 21 14 7 7 9 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 10 CX,CY: -8/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 625 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 62.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 11. 17. 21. 25. 28. 29. 30. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 6. 9. 11. 13. 13. 13. 13. 13. 13. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -5. -4. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -7. -8. -10. -11. -11. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 9. 13. 21. 28. 33. 35. 36. 37. 39. 44. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL952015 INVEST 09/16/15 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.1 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.1 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.8 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 69.6 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 109.8 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.5 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 21.6 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 33.6 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 50.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 30% is 2.5 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 14% is 1.8 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 7% is 1.6 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 7% is 2.2 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL952015 INVEST 09/16/2015 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)