* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST CP952015 09/16/15 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 23 26 29 33 41 50 59 65 69 73 75 76 V (KT) LAND 20 23 26 29 33 41 50 59 65 69 73 75 76 V (KT) LGE mod 20 21 22 24 26 31 37 45 54 66 78 88 95 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 5 9 13 15 15 14 7 9 8 12 15 15 11 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 0 0 1 0 -1 -2 -2 0 -1 -1 -3 SHEAR DIR 62 53 76 95 101 132 151 141 127 109 79 76 82 SST (C) 29.9 30.0 30.0 30.0 30.1 30.2 30.3 30.3 30.3 30.2 29.9 29.6 29.7 POT. INT. (KT) 164 165 165 165 165 165 165 166 168 168 165 161 161 200 MB T (C) -52.1 -51.6 -51.3 -51.5 -51.8 -51.3 -51.5 -51.5 -51.5 -51.2 -51.6 -51.3 -51.8 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 9 9 9 10 10 12 12 12 11 11 10 700-500 MB RH 81 79 77 75 71 59 54 46 49 55 63 66 62 MODEL VTX (KT) 0 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 62 60 62 66 68 72 84 80 79 70 56 53 43 200 MB DIV 62 56 62 48 33 10 0 -12 9 13 35 55 47 700-850 TADV -2 -2 -1 -1 0 0 -1 -2 -2 -4 2 4 0 LAND (KM) 2073 2119 2170 2181 2197 2174 2144 2051 1897 1666 1391 1139 979 LAT (DEG N) 9.3 9.8 10.2 10.9 11.5 12.8 13.7 14.2 14.4 14.7 15.5 16.7 17.9 LONG(DEG W) 174.0 175.0 176.0 176.7 177.3 177.9 178.1 177.4 175.9 173.6 171.1 169.1 168.1 STM SPEED (KT) 11 11 10 9 8 6 4 6 9 12 12 9 8 HEAT CONTENT 58 57 52 50 50 59 67 62 61 51 52 55 56 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 486 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 68.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL -1. -1. -1. 0. 6. 15. 25. 33. 38. 41. 44. 46. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 7. 8. 8. 9. 9. 8. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -10. -12. -12. -13. -13. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 2. 2. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 5. 5. 5. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 9. 13. 21. 30. 39. 45. 49. 53. 55. 56. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX CP952015 INVEST 09/16/15 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.6 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 145.0 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.3 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.6 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 53.4 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 52.2 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 49.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 76.6 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 34% is 2.6 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 26% is 2.9 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 18% is 3.0 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP952015 INVEST 09/16/15 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##