* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * NINE AL092015 09/17/15 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 24 25 25 24 25 24 23 24 29 32 34 V (KT) LAND 25 25 24 25 25 24 25 24 23 24 29 32 34 V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 24 24 24 23 22 21 19 18 18 DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 13 18 20 17 20 27 26 28 30 19 17 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 7 7 3 2 3 3 5 7 3 5 0 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 246 253 267 262 255 266 249 239 230 211 213 N/A N/A SST (C) 27.9 28.0 28.0 28.1 28.2 28.3 28.7 28.9 29.0 29.2 29.6 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 134 135 135 136 138 140 146 147 149 154 162 N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 127 126 125 125 127 129 133 130 133 141 150 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -54.0 -54.2 -54.3 -54.2 -54.4 -54.7 -54.7 -55.0 -54.9 -55.1 -55.0 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 7 8 8 8 9 9 9 9 10 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 59 59 59 61 60 52 52 51 49 47 47 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 11 9 9 9 9 7 7 6 6 6 LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 34 25 19 22 29 27 48 48 73 83 92 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 73 43 32 50 24 12 -7 37 30 34 -6 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 1 1 2 2 3 3 2 0 2 -2 2 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1436 1460 1488 1520 1554 1627 1691 1650 1603 1548 1373 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 15.5 16.1 16.6 17.1 17.6 18.7 20.1 20.6 20.6 21.1 22.2 N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 44.9 45.3 45.7 46.0 46.3 47.1 48.5 49.4 50.0 51.2 53.2 N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 8 7 6 6 6 8 7 4 4 8 11 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 22 15 14 14 15 20 21 25 30 39 36 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 9 CX,CY: -6/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 805 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 27.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 33.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 6. 11. 17. 21. 25. 29. 30. 32. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 1. -4. -8. -11. -12. -13. -15. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -9. -10. -11. -13. -14. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 10. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -8. -7. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. -1. 0. 0. -1. 0. -1. -2. -1. 4. 7. 9. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL092015 NINE 09/17/15 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 17.8 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 27.4 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 66.4 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 101.1 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.4 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 16.0 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 44.4 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 30.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 15% is 1.3 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 8% is 1.1 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.9 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL092015 NINE 09/17/15 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL092015 NINE 09/17/2015 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)