* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST CP952015 09/17/15 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 21 23 25 28 36 46 56 63 68 73 73 71 V (KT) LAND 20 21 23 25 28 36 46 56 63 68 73 73 71 V (KT) LGE mod 20 21 21 23 24 30 38 46 53 60 66 69 68 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 5 5 4 4 4 2 8 6 9 16 14 23 26 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 0 -1 0 0 3 5 1 0 -4 -1 -1 7 SHEAR DIR 15 25 32 16 39 269 251 244 252 259 243 249 258 SST (C) 30.0 30.1 30.3 30.3 30.3 30.1 29.8 29.8 29.7 29.7 29.6 29.0 27.7 POT. INT. (KT) 165 167 169 169 168 164 161 163 163 163 162 156 143 200 MB T (C) -51.6 -51.3 -51.4 -51.6 -51.4 -51.4 -51.4 -51.4 -51.1 -51.4 -51.4 -51.5 -51.6 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 9 9 10 10 10 10 10 9 9 9 8 700-500 MB RH 77 76 74 70 66 60 56 58 66 69 63 58 58 MODEL VTX (KT) 9 9 9 8 8 8 11 13 15 17 18 17 15 850 MB ENV VOR 78 76 76 74 74 93 88 81 98 107 114 105 90 200 MB DIV 49 69 70 53 38 14 35 28 65 85 73 40 70 700-850 TADV -2 -1 0 1 2 3 4 2 4 6 8 21 32 LAND (KM) 1901 1908 1925 1923 1927 1904 1841 1666 1426 1169 1011 947 1016 LAT (DEG N) 10.5 11.5 12.4 13.3 14.2 15.6 16.6 17.0 17.8 19.4 21.7 24.4 27.3 LONG(DEG W) 173.0 174.0 174.9 175.5 176.1 176.6 176.4 174.8 172.7 170.7 169.6 168.7 168.0 STM SPEED (KT) 10 13 12 11 9 6 6 9 12 12 13 14 14 HEAT CONTENT 52 60 74 69 61 57 51 59 75 53 30 22 5 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 6 CX,CY: -4/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 576 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 22.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 52.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -2. 0. 6. 15. 25. 33. 37. 40. 43. 45. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 10. 10. 8. 7. 5. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 1. -1. -3. -3. -3. -2. 0. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -11. -12. -13. -14. -13. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 3. 7. 10. 12. 15. 13. 10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 8. 9. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -6. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 5. 5. 5. 5. 4. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 5. 8. 16. 27. 36. 43. 48. 53. 53. 51. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX CP952015 INVEST 09/17/15 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.3 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 147.6 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.8 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 63.2 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 55.8 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 39.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 74.8 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 43% is 3.3 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP952015 INVEST 09/17/15 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##