* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * NINE AL092015 09/17/15 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 31 31 32 32 30 29 29 28 29 34 36 37 V (KT) LAND 30 31 31 32 32 30 29 29 28 29 34 36 37 V (KT) LGE mod 30 31 32 32 31 29 28 27 26 25 26 DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 19 21 19 21 24 23 25 27 25 17 11 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 6 4 3 3 3 3 7 3 6 0 2 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 249 259 256 251 255 252 246 223 236 190 212 N/A N/A SST (C) 28.0 28.0 28.1 28.1 28.2 28.4 28.6 28.9 29.2 29.4 29.6 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 135 135 136 137 138 141 143 149 154 157 160 N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 125 124 126 126 127 128 129 135 139 141 144 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -54.1 -54.2 -54.0 -54.2 -54.4 -54.5 -54.7 -54.9 -55.0 -55.1 -55.0 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 8 9 9 9 9 10 10 10 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 58 59 61 61 58 54 55 51 51 47 46 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 11 10 9 9 9 7 7 6 6 5 LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 29 23 24 32 28 30 53 54 70 83 94 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 40 23 37 19 13 18 12 50 24 12 4 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 2 4 3 3 4 2 1 2 -3 1 0 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1468 1502 1537 1571 1608 1681 1716 1667 1595 1477 1373 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 16.0 16.5 17.0 17.6 18.1 19.3 20.0 20.6 21.1 21.6 22.2 N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 45.1 45.3 45.5 45.8 46.2 47.2 48.0 49.2 50.6 52.0 53.2 N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 6 5 6 6 7 7 6 7 7 7 6 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 15 12 12 13 15 19 20 24 40 37 36 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):325/ 6 CX,CY: -2/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 742 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 34.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 1. 3. 6. 10. 15. 19. 23. 25. 27. 28. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. -1. -5. -9. -11. -11. -11. -12. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -3. -3. -3. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -10. -10. -11. -12. -13. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 10. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 1. 2. 2. 0. -1. -1. -2. -1. 4. 6. 7. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL092015 NINE 09/17/15 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 20.8 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.6 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 65.8 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 95.6 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.4 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 13.4 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 26.4 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 27.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 15% is 1.3 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 9% is 1.2 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 5% is 1.0 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL092015 NINE 09/17/15 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL092015 NINE 09/17/2015 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)