* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL952015 09/17/15 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 29 32 35 41 44 47 49 48 49 50 54 V (KT) LAND 25 27 29 32 35 41 44 47 49 48 49 50 54 V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 27 29 31 35 38 41 43 44 44 46 50 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 3 4 5 6 6 7 9 10 13 13 8 6 7 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -3 -1 -2 -4 4 5 4 6 5 6 2 6 SHEAR DIR 267 258 235 222 208 207 265 275 286 287 279 253 219 SST (C) 28.2 28.1 28.1 28.0 27.9 27.7 27.5 27.6 27.7 27.9 28.2 28.4 28.7 POT. INT. (KT) 139 137 137 135 134 132 130 132 133 135 139 141 146 ADJ. POT. INT. 138 133 132 129 128 126 124 126 126 127 129 128 131 200 MB T (C) -53.9 -53.9 -53.5 -53.7 -54.0 -53.5 -54.1 -53.8 -54.4 -54.3 -54.8 -54.6 -55.0 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 7 6 7 7 7 7 7 8 8 700-500 MB RH 75 73 72 75 76 75 73 71 69 66 66 63 62 MODEL VTX (KT) 9 9 10 10 10 10 10 9 9 8 6 5 LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 33 33 32 28 32 35 23 9 -8 -20 -20 -8 9 200 MB DIV 63 65 84 114 97 57 38 39 39 53 35 42 27 700-850 TADV -1 -1 -3 -1 0 -4 -5 -3 0 2 1 5 3 LAND (KM) 1587 1658 1731 1782 1835 1954 1933 1856 1792 1811 1897 1997 2107 LAT (DEG N) 11.6 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 31.8 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 10 8 7 6 7 8 9 10 10 9 9 8 8 HEAT CONTENT 22 21 24 25 24 21 20 21 8 6 10 19 27 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 612 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 62.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 11. 17. 21. 25. 28. 29. 31. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 8. 9. 10. 10. 9. 9. 10. 10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -3. -4. -6. -8. -10. -12. -12. -13. -14. -15. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -8. -9. -10. -10. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -6. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 7. 10. 16. 19. 22. 24. 23. 24. 25. 29. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL952015 INVEST 09/17/15 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.0 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.2 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 72.6 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 107.1 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.5 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 23.2 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 84.6 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 50.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 32% is 2.7 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 13% is 1.7 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 7% is 1.6 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 6% is 2.1 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL952015 INVEST 09/17/2015 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)