* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST CP952015 09/17/15 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 21 24 26 30 39 48 57 65 69 72 71 66 V (KT) LAND 20 21 24 26 30 39 48 57 65 69 72 71 66 V (KT) LGE mod 20 21 22 23 25 30 36 44 52 59 65 66 64 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 1 2 3 4 3 3 6 15 16 18 21 25 27 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 1 -2 -2 0 0 0 0 0 -3 2 0 5 SHEAR DIR 62 315 356 55 115 298 217 237 242 248 236 248 256 SST (C) 30.1 30.2 30.3 30.3 30.2 29.9 29.7 29.5 29.6 29.6 29.3 28.6 27.5 POT. INT. (KT) 166 169 169 169 167 162 160 159 161 162 159 151 140 200 MB T (C) -51.3 -51.4 -51.4 -51.1 -50.9 -51.4 -51.1 -51.5 -51.1 -51.6 -51.3 -51.7 -51.7 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 9 10 10 10 11 10 10 9 9 9 7 700-500 MB RH 77 75 71 68 66 61 58 61 64 63 60 58 59 MODEL VTX (KT) 9 9 9 8 8 9 10 12 15 16 17 15 13 850 MB ENV VOR 72 68 63 64 72 84 83 84 110 104 110 85 53 200 MB DIV 71 61 50 46 42 32 27 34 67 84 74 61 51 700-850 TADV 2 3 2 1 0 1 1 2 5 6 6 16 27 LAND (KM) 1903 1900 1907 1902 1904 1889 1813 1668 1441 1248 1125 1104 1168 LAT (DEG N) 11.0 12.1 13.1 14.1 15.0 16.4 17.3 18.0 19.1 20.8 23.1 25.4 27.9 LONG(DEG W) 173.5 174.4 175.2 175.8 176.3 176.8 176.4 175.2 173.3 171.8 170.7 170.0 169.4 STM SPEED (KT) 10 13 12 11 9 6 6 8 11 12 12 12 12 HEAT CONTENT 55 69 75 63 59 54 47 53 72 48 43 26 4 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 7 CX,CY: -5/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 581 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 68.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -2. 0. 6. 15. 25. 32. 37. 40. 42. 44. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 8. 10. 10. 9. 6. 4. 1. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 2. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -3. -1. 1. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -11. -12. -13. -13. -12. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 2. 5. 9. 11. 13. 10. 6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 3. 4. 5. 6. 5. 4. 5. 5. 4. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 4. 6. 10. 19. 28. 37. 45. 49. 52. 51. 46. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX CP952015 INVEST 09/17/15 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 2.8 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 147.9 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.1 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 64.2 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 54.0 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 56.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 75.6 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 60% is 4.6 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 42% is 4.8 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 26% is 4.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 25% is 5.8 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP952015 INVEST 09/17/15 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##