* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * NINE AL092015 09/17/15 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 31 31 31 30 29 27 26 26 29 34 37 38 V (KT) LAND 30 31 31 31 30 29 27 26 26 29 34 37 38 V (KT) LGE mod 30 31 32 31 31 29 27 26 24 24 26 DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 17 17 19 23 25 28 29 32 15 11 1 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 3 2 2 2 2 6 0 1 3 -1 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 256 249 243 251 255 250 243 223 214 215 108 N/A N/A SST (C) 28.0 28.0 28.1 28.1 28.2 28.4 28.7 28.9 29.1 29.4 29.7 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 134 135 136 136 138 141 145 148 152 157 163 N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 124 125 126 126 127 130 132 134 138 143 148 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -54.0 -53.9 -53.9 -54.2 -54.3 -54.4 -54.8 -54.8 -55.1 -55.0 -55.0 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 8 8 9 9 10 10 11 11 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 59 59 60 58 55 53 51 49 45 45 42 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 10 10 9 8 7 6 6 6 5 5 3 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 23 25 30 27 25 42 50 68 71 95 64 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 20 29 11 10 9 9 43 24 18 5 -2 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 3 3 2 4 3 2 0 2 -1 3 0 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1453 1481 1511 1539 1569 1613 1622 1558 1481 1399 1301 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 15.9 16.4 16.9 17.4 17.9 18.9 19.7 20.2 20.5 21.3 22.4 N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 45.2 45.5 45.8 46.2 46.6 47.8 49.0 50.2 51.5 52.7 54.0 N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 5 6 6 6 7 7 7 6 7 7 8 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 17 14 14 16 18 21 23 35 43 49 49 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):325/ 4 CX,CY: -1/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 713 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 15.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 1. 3. 6. 10. 15. 19. 23. 26. 27. 28. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. -2. -7. -9. -11. -9. -9. -10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -10. -11. -11. -13. -14. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 8. 9. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -5. -5. -7. -7. -9. -9. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -5. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -3. -4. -4. -1. 4. 7. 8. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL092015 NINE 09/17/15 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 20.4 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.6 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.9 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 64.4 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 95.5 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.4 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 15.8 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 15.8 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 10.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL092015 NINE 09/17/15 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL092015 NINE 09/17/2015 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)