* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL952015 09/17/15 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 28 30 33 37 41 44 45 45 45 47 48 V (KT) LAND 25 26 28 30 33 37 41 44 45 45 45 47 48 V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 27 28 30 33 36 39 40 41 42 43 45 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 4 4 5 6 7 6 12 13 15 12 11 15 18 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -1 -2 -4 -3 7 2 4 3 9 5 3 3 SHEAR DIR 254 234 224 189 196 260 269 271 284 261 245 224 231 SST (C) 28.1 28.1 28.0 27.9 27.8 27.6 27.6 27.7 27.9 28.1 28.4 28.7 28.9 POT. INT. (KT) 138 137 135 134 133 131 131 133 135 138 142 145 148 ADJ. POT. INT. 135 132 130 128 128 125 125 128 129 130 130 130 130 200 MB T (C) -53.9 -53.5 -53.7 -53.9 -53.9 -53.8 -54.1 -53.9 -54.4 -54.3 -54.8 -54.6 -55.0 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 8 8 8 8 700-500 MB RH 74 73 76 77 75 76 72 71 66 65 64 61 60 MODEL VTX (KT) 9 10 10 10 11 10 11 10 10 8 6 6 4 850 MB ENV VOR 32 31 30 34 46 41 27 14 -7 -1 9 22 31 200 MB DIV 63 84 117 108 69 58 26 48 32 46 44 41 25 700-850 TADV -2 -3 -1 0 -1 -6 -2 -5 -3 -1 -4 -1 -1 LAND (KM) 1706 1768 1832 1890 1950 1909 1843 1783 1758 1785 1903 1990 2041 LAT (DEG N) 11.9 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 33.0 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 9 7 7 7 8 9 9 11 10 10 8 6 5 HEAT CONTENT 21 22 22 22 22 21 23 12 5 6 15 18 26 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 631 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 42.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 6. 11. 17. 21. 25. 28. 29. 31. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 8. 9. 10. 9. 9. 8. 8. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -2. -2. -3. -6. -8. -10. -11. -13. -14. -15. -16. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -10. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 5. 8. 12. 16. 19. 20. 20. 20. 22. 23. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL952015 INVEST 09/17/15 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.0 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.8 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 74.2 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 105.6 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.5 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 21.8 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 88.2 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 34.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 31% is 2.6 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 13% is 1.7 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 7% is 1.6 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL952015 INVEST 09/17/2015 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)