* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST CP952015 09/17/15 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 21 22 24 27 33 41 48 53 56 58 60 59 V (KT) LAND 20 21 22 24 27 33 41 48 53 56 58 60 59 V (KT) LGE mod 20 20 21 21 23 25 29 32 37 44 50 55 57 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 2 3 3 3 4 7 9 7 10 11 20 27 37 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -1 -1 0 -2 0 -6 -4 -4 0 0 2 0 SHEAR DIR 253 309 49 107 238 225 211 205 236 229 233 245 268 SST (C) 30.2 30.3 30.3 30.2 30.0 29.7 29.5 29.6 29.7 29.4 28.7 27.5 25.8 POT. INT. (KT) 168 169 169 167 164 160 159 161 162 160 153 141 124 200 MB T (C) -51.5 -51.4 -51.1 -51.0 -51.3 -51.3 -51.4 -51.2 -51.4 -51.5 -51.7 -52.2 -52.6 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 10 10 10 10 10 9 9 9 8 7 6 700-500 MB RH 75 71 68 65 65 59 62 66 65 61 60 62 62 MODEL VTX (KT) 8 8 7 7 7 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 66 59 59 62 74 76 83 104 103 109 102 84 64 200 MB DIV 66 41 47 39 38 38 59 66 81 92 60 84 72 700-850 TADV 3 3 1 0 1 0 0 4 9 11 18 38 45 LAND (KM) 1873 1858 1852 1832 1818 1753 1618 1444 1282 1195 1178 1272 1473 LAT (DEG N) 12.0 13.1 14.2 15.1 16.0 17.3 18.0 19.0 20.6 22.9 25.3 28.1 31.3 LONG(DEG W) 174.0 174.7 175.3 175.6 175.9 175.8 174.7 173.3 172.1 171.4 170.8 170.5 170.4 STM SPEED (KT) 11 13 11 9 8 6 7 9 11 12 13 15 16 HEAT CONTENT 74 81 62 53 49 45 56 76 54 34 24 6 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):325/ 9 CX,CY: -4/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 564 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 69.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -2. 0. 6. 15. 25. 32. 37. 40. 42. 43. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 8. 9. 9. 8. 6. 2. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -6. -5. -4. -2. 0. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -11. -12. -12. -12. -11. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 4. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 4. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 4. 7. 13. 21. 28. 33. 36. 38. 40. 39. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX CP952015 INVEST 09/17/15 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 2.9 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 147.4 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.7 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.5 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 63.8 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 46.2 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 57.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 75.0 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 57% is 4.4 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 38% is 4.4 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 25% is 4.2 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 23% is 5.4 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP952015 INVEST 09/17/15 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##