* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * NINE AL092015 09/17/15 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 23 22 20 19 17 16 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 25 23 22 20 19 17 16 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 25 23 21 20 19 18 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 17 20 23 24 24 28 35 28 22 17 14 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 2 3 1 1 5 -1 5 0 3 2 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 234 232 244 250 247 242 224 229 212 225 201 N/A N/A SST (C) 28.0 28.0 28.1 28.2 28.2 28.5 28.7 28.9 29.2 29.5 29.7 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 134 135 137 138 138 142 145 148 154 160 164 N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 123 125 127 128 127 130 133 134 139 147 150 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.7 -53.9 -54.0 -54.2 -54.1 -54.3 -54.6 -54.7 -54.8 -54.7 -54.7 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 8 9 9 9 9 9 10 10 10 10 11 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 58 60 57 54 54 53 49 49 45 46 42 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 11 10 9 8 8 7 6 6 4 4 2 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 34 37 28 30 32 53 57 71 78 85 55 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 19 11 6 18 8 2 26 9 4 18 -11 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 3 3 3 2 2 0 2 -1 1 0 0 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1492 1507 1525 1554 1586 1629 1590 1527 1474 1351 1200 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 16.2 16.7 17.1 17.7 18.2 19.1 19.6 20.1 20.6 21.4 22.3 N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 45.0 45.4 45.9 46.4 46.9 47.9 49.3 50.5 51.7 53.2 55.0 N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 4 6 7 7 7 7 7 6 7 9 9 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 13 12 14 16 19 21 25 37 44 54 44 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 0/ 3 CX,CY: 0/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 690 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 13.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 6. 11. 17. 22. 26. 29. 31. 32. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. -2. -7. -11. -14. -14. -14. -16. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -11. -12. -12. -14. -15. PERSISTENCE -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -9. -9. -11. -10. -10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -6. -5. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -2. -3. -5. -6. -8. -9. -9. -10. -7. -3. 1. 3. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL092015 NINE 09/17/15 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 21.8 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.1 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.9 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 64.0 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 101.0 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.4 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 14.8 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 12.4 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 11.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL092015 NINE 09/17/15 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL092015 NINE 09/17/2015 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)