* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL952015 09/17/15 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 29 31 34 38 43 48 49 50 50 49 51 V (KT) LAND 25 26 29 31 34 38 43 48 49 50 50 49 51 V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 26 28 29 33 38 42 46 48 49 50 51 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 5 4 2 3 2 4 8 10 9 9 9 11 14 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 1 -1 -2 -2 0 0 3 5 8 3 8 4 SHEAR DIR 239 261 194 206 226 260 298 281 269 262 247 244 229 SST (C) 28.0 28.0 27.9 27.8 27.7 27.6 27.8 27.9 27.9 28.1 28.3 28.5 28.6 POT. INT. (KT) 136 135 134 133 132 131 134 135 135 137 139 141 142 ADJ. POT. INT. 131 129 128 126 126 126 129 130 127 128 127 125 125 200 MB T (C) -53.5 -53.8 -53.9 -53.8 -53.5 -54.0 -53.7 -54.2 -54.1 -54.5 -54.3 -54.6 -54.3 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 6 6 6 6 7 7 7 8 7 7 8 700-500 MB RH 73 75 77 76 77 75 70 69 65 64 61 59 59 MODEL VTX (KT) 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 10 9 8 7 6 6 850 MB ENV VOR 31 30 28 35 34 24 24 19 4 -1 3 2 3 200 MB DIV 101 116 101 73 55 37 31 36 27 34 34 23 24 700-850 TADV -3 -1 0 0 -1 -3 -2 -3 -2 -1 0 -1 0 LAND (KM) 1767 1828 1889 1948 1965 1859 1755 1701 1681 1690 1727 1770 1796 LAT (DEG N) 12.5 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 33.7 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 8 6 7 7 8 9 10 10 9 8 7 4 3 HEAT CONTENT 23 22 21 21 21 22 19 7 5 7 15 15 15 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 10 CX,CY: -8/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 638 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 60.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 6. 11. 17. 21. 25. 28. 29. 30. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 6. 9. 11. 12. 12. 12. 12. 12. 11. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -1. -2. -3. -6. -7. -9. -10. -12. -13. -15. -16. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -8. -9. -10. -11. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 4. 6. 9. 13. 18. 23. 24. 25. 25. 24. 26. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL952015 INVEST 09/17/15 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 3.2 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.2 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.9 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 76.6 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 102.9 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.4 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 21.6 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 89.2 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 41.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 40% is 3.4 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 24% is 3.1 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 14% is 3.1 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 12% is 4.1 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL952015 INVEST 09/17/2015 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)