* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST CP952015 09/17/15 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 22 24 27 30 37 44 51 56 60 62 63 62 V (KT) LAND 20 22 24 27 30 37 44 51 56 60 62 63 62 V (KT) LGE mod 20 21 22 23 25 29 33 37 44 51 59 63 63 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 4 1 2 5 10 12 8 6 4 8 19 24 28 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -4 -4 -3 -2 -2 -5 -2 -1 0 -2 5 0 SHEAR DIR 271 30 163 217 242 205 202 159 236 237 253 256 276 SST (C) 30.3 30.2 30.1 30.0 29.8 29.6 29.6 29.7 29.6 29.3 28.5 27.3 26.0 POT. INT. (KT) 168 168 165 163 161 159 160 162 162 159 151 138 124 200 MB T (C) -51.4 -51.0 -51.0 -51.3 -51.5 -51.3 -51.6 -51.2 -51.7 -51.4 -51.9 -52.2 -53.1 TH_E DEV (C) 9 10 10 10 10 11 10 9 9 9 8 7 5 700-500 MB RH 71 66 65 65 62 58 62 65 64 61 59 61 61 MODEL VTX (KT) 8 7 7 7 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 68 60 68 78 79 84 87 113 106 113 78 45 -13 200 MB DIV 49 45 36 44 36 31 40 61 67 71 60 50 29 700-850 TADV 4 1 0 0 0 -2 -1 4 8 8 22 33 30 LAND (KM) 1844 1841 1846 1833 1823 1742 1598 1363 1176 1085 1096 1189 1325 LAT (DEG N) 13.7 14.7 15.6 16.2 16.8 17.6 18.0 19.0 20.8 23.2 25.7 28.5 31.0 LONG(DEG W) 174.9 175.5 176.0 176.2 176.3 175.8 174.5 172.5 171.1 170.3 169.8 169.2 168.6 STM SPEED (KT) 10 11 8 6 5 5 9 11 12 13 13 14 12 HEAT CONTENT 71 57 51 48 46 44 60 70 37 39 19 2 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):335/ 8 CX,CY: -2/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 565 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 88.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -1. 0. 7. 15. 24. 32. 37. 39. 41. 42. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 8. 8. 9. 8. 6. 3. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -5. -6. -5. -3. 0. 1. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -11. -12. -12. -12. -11. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 4. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 0. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 7. 10. 17. 24. 31. 36. 40. 42. 43. 42. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX CP952015 INVEST 09/17/15 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.5 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 145.1 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.7 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.8 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 54.6 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 42.0 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 82.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 73.6 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 73% is 5.6 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 51% is 5.8 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 31% is 4.9 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 29% is 7.1 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP952015 INVEST 09/17/15 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##