* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * NINE AL092015 09/18/15 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 23 22 21 20 17 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 25 23 22 21 20 17 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 25 23 21 20 19 17 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 24 27 28 28 30 34 33 20 23 15 17 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 3 2 1 2 1 2 5 1 2 3 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 233 242 248 245 242 230 231 222 227 226 218 N/A N/A SST (C) 28.0 28.1 28.2 28.3 28.4 28.6 28.9 29.1 29.4 29.6 29.8 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 135 137 138 140 141 144 148 152 157 161 164 N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 124 126 127 129 130 131 134 138 141 144 147 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.9 -54.1 -54.2 -54.1 -54.1 -54.4 -54.6 -54.8 -54.5 -54.6 -54.3 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 9 8 9 9 9 9 10 10 10 10 11 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 61 59 57 57 57 56 56 54 52 49 49 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 11 9 8 8 8 7 7 5 5 3 3 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 35 28 33 38 47 45 55 57 69 51 48 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 19 24 18 10 -1 14 -3 21 10 26 0 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 3 3 2 2 0 1 0 -3 3 0 2 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1566 1595 1628 1636 1647 1673 1621 1556 1458 1354 1277 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 17.0 17.6 18.1 18.5 18.9 19.7 20.3 20.8 21.2 21.9 22.8 N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 45.0 45.4 45.8 46.4 47.1 48.3 49.5 50.8 52.1 53.3 54.4 N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 5 7 7 7 7 7 6 7 6 6 7 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 9 10 13 16 18 21 28 45 46 52 43 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 0/ 4 CX,CY: 0/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 649 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 18.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 6. 11. 17. 22. 26. 29. 31. 33. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. -4. -9. -13. -15. -16. -17. -19. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -10. -11. -12. -13. -14. PERSISTENCE -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -7. -8. -9. -10. -9. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -5. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -2. -3. -4. -5. -8. -9. -11. -10. -8. -3. 0. 2. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL092015 NINE 09/18/15 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 27.4 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.0 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 64.6 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 102.0 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.4 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 13.2 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 14.0 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 16.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 11% is 0.9 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 6% is 0.8 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL092015 NINE 09/18/15 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL092015 NINE 09/18/2015 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED