* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL952015 09/18/15 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 29 32 34 39 44 48 49 49 50 49 52 V (KT) LAND 25 27 29 32 34 39 44 48 49 49 50 49 52 V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 27 28 30 34 39 43 46 48 49 50 52 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 7 5 3 1 2 9 9 11 10 11 11 15 14 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -3 -4 0 1 0 1 3 7 4 6 8 7 SHEAR DIR 220 214 188 191 237 293 280 280 253 260 241 252 238 SST (C) 27.9 27.8 27.7 27.6 27.6 27.7 27.8 27.9 28.1 28.3 28.4 28.5 28.6 POT. INT. (KT) 135 133 131 130 130 132 134 136 138 139 140 141 143 ADJ. POT. INT. 131 126 124 122 123 126 130 130 130 128 125 125 127 200 MB T (C) -53.7 -53.9 -53.8 -53.4 -53.7 -53.9 -53.8 -54.2 -54.3 -54.5 -54.3 -54.5 -54.3 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 6 7 7 7 7 7 8 8 9 700-500 MB RH 77 77 76 78 78 74 73 67 65 63 61 59 56 MODEL VTX (KT) 9 9 9 10 10 10 10 10 9 8 8 7 8 850 MB ENV VOR 30 34 43 45 42 28 24 16 21 9 3 -5 5 200 MB DIV 134 112 71 50 54 23 37 37 26 36 25 14 10 700-850 TADV 0 0 -1 -2 -2 -2 -1 -2 -2 -1 -2 -2 -2 LAND (KM) 1876 1942 1959 1917 1876 1798 1720 1672 1654 1682 1730 1722 1667 LAT (DEG N) 13.0 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 34.8 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 9 7 7 6 7 9 11 11 10 7 4 4 4 HEAT CONTENT 21 21 21 22 23 23 11 6 6 14 15 17 21 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 11 CX,CY: -9/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 677 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 61.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 5. 11. 16. 21. 25. 28. 29. 30. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 6. 8. 10. 11. 11. 11. 11. 11. 10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -8. -10. -11. -12. -14. -15. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -8. -9. -10. -10. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -4. -5. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 7. 9. 14. 19. 23. 24. 24. 25. 24. 27. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL952015 INVEST 09/18/15 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 3.5 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.0 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.8 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 77.4 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 100.3 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.4 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 21.6 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 84.2 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 38.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 38% is 3.2 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 22% is 2.9 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 13% is 2.8 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 12% is 3.9 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL952015 INVEST 09/18/2015 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED