* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST CP952015 09/18/15 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 28 30 32 38 45 50 53 53 53 52 49 V (KT) LAND 25 26 28 30 32 38 45 50 53 53 53 52 49 V (KT) LGE mod 25 27 29 30 32 34 37 41 46 50 52 51 47 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 2 3 9 11 12 13 9 11 14 25 28 34 38 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -2 -1 0 -1 -5 -5 -2 0 0 3 4 3 SHEAR DIR 294 248 247 239 223 225 247 263 244 240 257 266 274 SST (C) 30.2 30.1 29.8 29.7 29.5 29.5 29.6 29.6 29.3 28.6 27.5 26.2 24.7 POT. INT. (KT) 167 166 162 160 158 159 161 161 158 151 140 127 112 200 MB T (C) -51.0 -51.0 -51.3 -51.6 -51.4 -51.6 -51.5 -51.8 -51.7 -51.9 -52.4 -52.7 -54.0 TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 10 10 10 9 9 9 9 8 7 6 5 700-500 MB RH 66 64 65 63 60 63 65 65 63 61 63 64 62 MODEL VTX (KT) 7 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 47 51 64 63 71 84 107 104 100 81 62 34 18 200 MB DIV 36 39 41 44 40 43 98 79 61 50 65 63 71 700-850 TADV 3 1 2 1 1 1 5 13 13 20 27 39 38 LAND (KM) 1781 1757 1738 1699 1661 1520 1358 1192 1126 1146 1264 1423 1668 LAT (DEG N) 14.8 15.8 16.7 17.3 17.9 18.5 19.5 21.1 23.2 25.5 28.1 30.7 33.8 LONG(DEG W) 174.9 175.2 175.4 175.3 175.1 173.9 172.6 171.3 170.7 170.4 170.4 170.3 170.4 STM SPEED (KT) 10 10 8 6 6 7 9 11 11 12 13 14 15 HEAT CONTENT 54 49 48 48 49 72 70 37 40 23 6 5 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):345/ 9 CX,CY: -1/ 9 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 586 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 71.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. 0. 2. 7. 15. 23. 30. 33. 35. 36. 36. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 4. 1. -3. -8. -13. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -6. -5. -4. -1. 1. 2. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -2. -5. -7. -9. -10. -11. -11. -10. -9. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 2. 5. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 6. 5. 4. 4. 4. 3. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 3. 5. 7. 14. 20. 25. 28. 28. 28. 27. 24. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX CP952015 INVEST 09/18/15 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 1.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.3 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.9 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 137.7 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.1 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 49.6 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 40.0 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 59.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 72.2 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 42% is 3.2 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 30% is 3.4 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 21% is 3.6 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 16% is 3.8 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP952015 INVEST 09/18/15 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##