* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL952015 09/18/15 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 31 34 36 41 44 45 45 44 45 46 49 V (KT) LAND 25 28 31 34 36 41 44 45 45 44 45 46 49 V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 27 29 31 35 39 40 40 40 41 43 46 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 8 5 5 5 5 10 17 16 13 8 10 8 11 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -3 0 1 1 0 2 5 6 3 7 5 5 SHEAR DIR 179 182 183 208 244 275 273 271 282 269 284 256 236 SST (C) 27.7 27.6 27.6 27.6 27.6 27.7 27.8 28.0 28.2 28.4 28.6 28.7 28.8 POT. INT. (KT) 132 130 130 130 130 133 134 137 139 141 143 144 146 ADJ. POT. INT. 127 122 122 122 124 128 128 129 128 127 127 128 131 200 MB T (C) -53.7 -53.7 -53.3 -53.5 -53.7 -53.5 -54.0 -53.8 -54.3 -54.0 -54.3 -54.1 -54.2 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 7 7 7 8 8 8 7 7 8 8 700-500 MB RH 77 76 76 76 74 72 71 66 67 67 70 66 63 MODEL VTX (KT) 9 10 10 10 10 11 11 9 8 7 6 5 5 850 MB ENV VOR 36 47 51 47 33 25 12 2 -5 -11 -3 -2 6 200 MB DIV 112 75 63 61 36 33 13 35 31 29 7 3 -7 700-850 TADV 0 -1 -3 -4 -3 -1 -5 -5 -4 -2 -2 0 -2 LAND (KM) 1975 1950 1909 1870 1832 1772 1716 1682 1682 1723 1785 1770 1689 LAT (DEG N) 13.6 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 35.8 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 9 6 6 6 8 10 10 10 8 6 4 4 5 HEAT CONTENT 20 20 21 22 23 16 6 6 10 15 15 17 20 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 11 CX,CY: -9/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 745 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 89.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 5. 10. 16. 21. 25. 27. 29. 30. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 8. 7. 6. 6. 6. 6. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -7. -9. -9. -10. -11. -12. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -10. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 9. 11. 16. 19. 20. 20. 19. 20. 21. 24. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL952015 INVEST 09/18/15 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.7 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.2 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 76.8 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 98.4 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.4 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 21.2 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 69.4 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 83.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.2 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 41% is 3.4 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 26% is 3.4 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 14% is 3.0 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 8% is 2.6 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL952015 INVEST 09/18/15 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL952015 INVEST 09/18/2015 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)