* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST CP952015 09/18/15 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 30 33 38 46 54 57 58 51 45 44 43 V (KT) LAND 25 28 30 33 38 46 54 57 58 51 45 44 43 V (KT) LGE mod 25 28 30 33 35 39 43 45 44 40 34 29 26 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 4 7 8 7 11 23 21 24 34 42 41 46 52 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 0 0 4 1 -5 1 0 4 1 11 1 -3 SHEAR DIR 294 251 244 245 241 261 252 246 246 249 253 280 284 SST (C) 30.1 30.0 29.8 29.8 29.7 29.7 29.7 29.4 28.4 27.1 25.8 24.8 23.9 POT. INT. (KT) 166 165 162 162 161 161 162 160 150 136 123 112 102 200 MB T (C) -51.2 -51.5 -51.6 -51.3 -51.4 -51.8 -51.3 -52.0 -51.7 -52.8 -53.0 -54.5 -54.9 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 9 9 9 8 9 8 7 6 5 4 2 700-500 MB RH 68 70 69 68 68 70 68 65 62 62 65 62 60 MODEL VTX (KT) 8 9 9 10 11 13 16 17 19 17 16 19 22 850 MB ENV VOR 40 40 44 56 71 83 98 89 93 61 41 -10 -73 200 MB DIV 55 41 50 53 65 63 97 90 65 45 55 64 2 700-850 TADV 2 2 3 7 4 6 7 11 27 33 24 27 34 LAND (KM) 1636 1561 1490 1414 1339 1205 1057 969 956 1095 1306 1535 1732 LAT (DEG N) 15.4 16.3 17.2 17.6 18.0 18.9 20.6 22.8 25.7 28.6 31.4 33.8 36.0 LONG(DEG W) 173.7 173.4 173.1 172.5 171.9 170.9 169.9 169.2 168.3 167.9 167.8 168.1 167.9 STM SPEED (KT) 9 9 8 7 7 8 10 13 15 14 13 11 11 HEAT CONTENT 44 48 63 64 59 52 32 31 12 1 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 20/ 9 CX,CY: 3/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 496 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 96.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. 0. 1. 7. 15. 23. 30. 33. 34. 34. 33. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 3. 1. -4. -12. -19. -26. -34. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -3. 0. 3. 4. 5. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -11. -12. -11. -9. -7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 4. 8. 13. 14. 17. 14. 12. 16. 21. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 3. 7. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -7. -7. -6. -6. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 4. 2. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 4. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 5. 8. 13. 21. 29. 32. 33. 26. 20. 19. 18. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX CP952015 INVEST 09/18/15 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 1.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.5 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 138.1 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.9 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.8 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 55.6 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 52.8 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 83.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 74.8 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 68% is 5.2 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 47% is 5.4 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 31% is 5.1 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 29% is 6.6 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP952015 INVEST 09/18/15 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##