* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * NINE AL092015 09/18/15 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 24 24 23 22 20 21 20 21 23 27 29 V (KT) LAND 25 25 24 24 23 22 20 21 20 21 23 27 29 V (KT) LGE mod 25 24 24 22 21 19 17 16 16 16 16 DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 29 29 32 32 33 33 25 26 22 30 24 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 0 1 3 2 2 1 0 0 3 2 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 242 237 239 239 231 222 219 209 210 209 240 N/A N/A SST (C) 28.2 28.2 28.4 28.5 28.6 28.9 29.3 29.6 29.7 29.9 30.0 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 138 139 142 143 144 149 156 161 163 166 167 N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 129 129 132 132 133 137 144 145 146 146 146 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -54.1 -54.1 -54.1 -54.3 -54.4 -54.4 -54.7 -54.3 -54.4 -54.2 -54.4 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 8 9 9 9 9 10 10 11 11 12 12 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 52 54 54 54 54 53 50 49 45 45 43 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 8 8 8 7 7 6 5 5 3 4 2 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 28 39 44 46 44 62 49 70 49 46 11 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 17 11 -1 4 23 18 19 8 5 -4 -6 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 0 1 2 0 2 -1 2 1 4 4 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1529 1547 1564 1573 1554 1488 1411 1281 1183 1128 1099 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 17.5 18.0 18.5 18.9 19.3 20.0 20.9 21.8 22.6 23.4 24.1 N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 46.6 47.3 48.0 48.8 49.5 50.9 52.5 54.0 55.3 56.3 57.1 N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 8 8 8 8 8 8 9 7 7 6 5 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 18 22 24 24 27 38 46 56 41 39 44 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 7 CX,CY: -6/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 794 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 2.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 0.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 6. 11. 18. 22. 27. 30. 32. 34. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 2. 0. -4. -10. -14. -18. -20. -22. -24. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -9. -11. -12. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 7. 8. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -7. -7. -9. -8. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -8. -9. -9. -8. -7. -6. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -4. -5. -4. -2. 2. 4. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL092015 NINE 09/18/15 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 31.0 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 2.6 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 62.6 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 106.0 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.5 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 23.0 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 10.8 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 0.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL092015 NINE 09/18/15 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL092015 NINE 09/18/2015 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)