* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL962015 09/18/15 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 22 24 27 30 35 40 43 42 40 39 38 34 V (KT) LAND 20 22 24 27 30 35 40 43 42 40 39 38 34 V (KT) LGE mod 20 20 20 21 21 23 25 28 31 32 33 33 32 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 28 26 31 28 20 20 21 29 30 36 34 44 46 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -4 0 0 -6 0 -4 0 0 0 2 0 -6 SHEAR DIR 249 234 246 251 237 217 237 230 242 232 224 217 221 SST (C) 29.3 29.2 29.2 29.1 29.0 29.0 28.8 28.8 28.6 28.4 28.6 27.9 25.5 POT. INT. (KT) 154 153 153 150 149 151 148 148 144 141 145 135 108 ADJ. POT. INT. 127 127 126 123 123 126 126 125 118 115 119 110 89 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -53.0 -53.0 -53.1 -53.3 -53.0 -53.4 -53.9 -54.8 -55.0 -55.4 -55.1 -55.6 TH_E DEV (C) 3 6 6 5 4 8 6 7 4 5 3 3 1 700-500 MB RH 57 53 49 45 45 42 43 44 47 52 61 60 54 MODEL VTX (KT) 11 11 11 11 12 11 12 11 10 10 9 9 10 850 MB ENV VOR 24 45 34 20 25 37 57 24 -15 -28 -7 -25 -3 200 MB DIV 39 41 30 33 43 21 25 7 39 22 64 55 38 700-850 TADV 7 3 10 9 4 -5 -11 -4 -2 4 8 7 -19 LAND (KM) 137 161 177 188 179 174 252 347 433 453 424 328 199 LAT (DEG N) 29.4 29.9 30.4 30.8 31.1 31.8 32.3 32.8 33.5 34.5 36.0 38.0 39.5 LONG(DEG W) 79.6 79.6 79.5 79.5 79.4 78.3 76.2 73.6 71.8 71.1 71.1 71.1 70.7 STM SPEED (KT) 3 5 5 4 5 7 10 10 6 7 8 9 7 HEAT CONTENT 42 43 43 43 40 44 39 23 20 12 22 68 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 10/ 2 CX,CY: 0/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 643 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 17.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 5. 11. 18. 23. 27. 30. 31. 32. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 2. 5. 7. 9. 10. 7. 2. -3. -9. -13. -17. -23. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 4. 6. 8. 10. 12. 14. 15. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -5. -6. -8. -10. -13. -15. -17. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -5. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 7. 10. 15. 20. 23. 22. 20. 19. 18. 14. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL962015 INVEST 09/18/15 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 26.7 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.1 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.8 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 62.8 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 105.1 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.5 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 42.2 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 37.2 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 10.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL962015 INVEST 09/18/15 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL962015 INVEST 09/18/2015 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)