* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST CP952015 09/18/15 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 24 23 24 26 32 37 47 48 48 44 44 43 V (KT) LAND 25 24 23 24 26 32 37 47 48 48 44 44 43 V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 25 26 26 27 28 29 29 27 24 23 22 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 8 6 1 5 10 16 18 17 19 21 28 27 31 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 5 12 7 0 -1 0 -1 1 0 -1 0 -1 SHEAR DIR 314 316 310 218 236 262 263 262 262 268 271 274 266 SST (C) 30.2 30.1 30.0 29.9 29.9 29.8 29.7 29.7 29.5 29.0 28.6 28.4 28.4 POT. INT. (KT) 166 165 163 163 163 163 163 163 160 154 148 145 146 200 MB T (C) -51.3 -51.5 -51.3 -51.3 -51.4 -51.1 -51.3 -51.0 -51.5 -51.5 -51.9 -52.3 -52.7 TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 10 11 10 10 10 9 10 9 8 8 8 700-500 MB RH 64 65 61 61 61 66 68 66 60 55 54 54 53 MODEL VTX (KT) 10 10 10 12 13 15 17 22 20 20 16 16 16 850 MB ENV VOR 63 63 68 72 68 99 95 112 107 94 25 -28 -37 200 MB DIV 10 27 48 41 36 52 56 82 46 34 7 0 5 700-850 TADV 2 4 7 7 6 7 8 6 4 11 3 -1 -2 LAND (KM) 1919 1858 1799 1729 1658 1480 1242 1013 835 761 755 797 879 LAT (DEG N) 15.1 15.7 16.2 16.4 16.5 17.0 18.2 19.9 21.8 23.7 24.9 25.4 25.6 LONG(DEG W) 176.5 176.2 175.8 175.2 174.5 172.9 171.0 169.3 167.9 167.0 166.5 166.7 167.5 STM SPEED (KT) 7 6 6 6 7 9 11 12 11 8 5 3 4 HEAT CONTENT 53 50 48 49 50 59 53 41 29 19 19 17 13 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 30/ 7 CX,CY: 4/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 485 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 27.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 42.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. 0. 1. 7. 15. 23. 30. 34. 36. 38. 39. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 1. -2. -5. -8. -11. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -7. -7. -6. -4. -3. -1. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -12. -13. -13. -13. -12. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 2. 4. 8. 10. 18. 16. 15. 9. 10. 10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -8. -7. -7. -7. -7. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. -7. -7. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -2. -1. 1. 7. 12. 22. 23. 23. 19. 19. 18. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX CP952015 INVEST 09/18/15 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.0 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 138.9 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 27.4 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 50.0 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 32.4 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 37.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 72.0 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 30% is 2.3 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP952015 INVEST 09/18/15 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##