* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP912015 09/18/15 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 21 21 22 23 25 25 25 23 18 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 20 21 21 22 23 25 25 25 23 20 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 20 20 20 21 21 21 20 18 17 17 23 26 28 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 11 8 6 3 8 7 14 25 33 35 46 43 54 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -4 -2 0 -4 -2 2 -1 0 1 -4 -1 -6 SHEAR DIR 51 50 59 30 336 316 257 230 218 203 209 213 226 SST (C) 29.4 29.2 29.1 28.8 28.6 27.5 26.2 25.6 23.4 31.5 23.0 20.3 19.3 POT. INT. (KT) 157 155 154 151 150 139 126 121 98 173 94 66 63 200 MB T (C) -51.3 -51.1 -50.7 -50.9 -51.0 -50.8 -51.0 -51.0 -51.7 -52.0 -52.7 -53.6 -55.0 TH_E DEV (C) 7 8 8 7 7 6 5 5 3 5 4 7 4 700-500 MB RH 81 78 76 75 75 71 69 66 66 64 61 61 64 MODEL VTX (KT) 10 10 10 10 9 8 6 6 6 5 3 4 3 850 MB ENV VOR 15 20 28 31 24 22 15 14 23 8 30 73 64 200 MB DIV 32 34 49 30 16 45 44 52 54 97 55 85 85 700-850 TADV 0 0 -1 0 0 0 2 6 2 4 0 -8 0 LAND (KM) 524 508 478 446 426 393 270 144 53 17 -292 -639 -999 LAT (DEG N) 18.0 18.4 18.7 19.2 19.6 21.1 23.1 25.8 28.5 31.4 34.1 37.1 39.8 LONG(DEG W) 110.0 110.5 111.0 111.6 112.1 113.3 114.2 114.6 114.8 114.4 113.5 112.0 109.3 STM SPEED (KT) 7 6 7 7 8 10 12 14 14 14 15 17 17 HEAT CONTENT 26 19 15 12 8 4 8 1 0 16 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 7 CX,CY: -5/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 15 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 515 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 22.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 46.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 2. 8. 14. 20. 24. 29. 31. 29. 26. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 7. 5. 0. -8. -17. -24. -33. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -3. -6. -7. -9. -9. -9. -8. -6. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -5. -6. -6. -7. -10. -9. -10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 5. 5. 3. -2. -11. -17. -26. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP912015 INVEST 09/18/15 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.2 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 133.5 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.1 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.5 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 16.0 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 32.2 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 37.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 75.0 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 28% is 2.2 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP912015 INVEST 09/18/15 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##