* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * TEN AL102015 09/18/15 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 34 37 40 43 47 49 51 51 49 49 49 52 V (KT) LAND 30 34 37 40 43 47 49 51 51 49 49 49 52 V (KT) LGE mod 30 33 35 38 40 44 47 49 50 51 54 56 59 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 4 7 10 10 9 16 16 8 6 7 5 9 6 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 3 1 0 0 1 3 7 4 4 3 5 2 SHEAR DIR 216 261 280 291 286 282 286 285 267 256 233 243 218 SST (C) 27.8 27.7 27.7 27.8 27.8 27.9 28.0 28.2 28.3 28.5 28.6 28.8 28.8 POT. INT. (KT) 133 132 132 133 134 136 137 139 139 141 142 145 145 ADJ. POT. INT. 127 125 125 127 129 132 130 129 126 127 126 127 128 200 MB T (C) -53.4 -53.6 -53.8 -53.8 -53.4 -53.9 -53.6 -54.1 -53.7 -54.1 -53.8 -54.1 -53.9 TH_E DEV (C) 6 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 8 8 8 700-500 MB RH 76 75 73 72 71 70 67 67 66 64 63 63 62 MODEL VTX (KT) 11 11 12 12 13 13 12 12 10 8 8 7 8 850 MB ENV VOR 39 34 24 23 19 12 4 -3 -5 -19 -13 -9 -1 200 MB DIV 71 63 26 14 28 24 29 41 34 12 21 4 20 700-850 TADV -3 -5 -4 -4 -4 -4 -7 -5 -2 -4 -1 -2 0 LAND (KM) 1859 1823 1789 1755 1725 1673 1630 1618 1636 1658 1684 1665 1624 LAT (DEG N) 13.2 13.6 13.9 14.3 14.7 15.9 17.1 18.0 18.7 19.3 19.8 20.1 20.1 LONG(DEG W) 37.0 37.6 38.3 39.0 39.8 41.9 44.1 45.8 46.9 47.7 48.3 48.8 49.3 STM SPEED (KT) 7 7 8 8 10 12 11 8 6 4 3 2 3 HEAT CONTENT 27 27 25 22 18 7 6 12 18 20 20 20 25 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 7 CX,CY: -6/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 638 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 95.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 1. 3. 6. 10. 15. 19. 22. 24. 26. 27. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 5. 6. 7. 7. 8. 9. 9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -6. -8. -9. -10. -12. -13. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -9. -10. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -1. -3. -5. -6. -6. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 7. 10. 13. 17. 19. 21. 21. 19. 19. 19. 22. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL102015 TEN 09/18/15 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.2 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.6 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.9 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 75.0 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 96.7 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.4 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 23.8 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 40.4 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 89.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.2 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 38% is 3.2 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 22% is 3.0 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 9% is 1.9 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 7% is 2.3 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL102015 TEN 09/18/15 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL102015 TEN 09/18/2015 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)