* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL962015 09/18/15 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 22 25 29 32 37 42 44 45 42 42 39 37 V (KT) LAND 20 22 25 29 32 37 42 44 45 42 42 39 37 V (KT) LGE mod 20 20 21 21 21 23 25 28 30 32 34 34 33 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 31 31 29 23 20 24 19 25 27 31 36 39 34 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 0 1 -5 -4 -2 -1 -2 1 0 1 2 1 SHEAR DIR 244 247 247 238 231 259 248 253 232 230 201 212 207 SST (C) 29.2 29.2 29.1 29.1 29.0 29.1 28.9 28.9 28.9 28.7 28.2 27.6 26.7 POT. INT. (KT) 152 152 150 150 149 152 150 149 148 145 139 130 119 ADJ. POT. INT. 124 124 123 123 122 128 128 123 120 119 114 105 96 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -52.9 -53.0 -53.2 -52.9 -53.0 -53.6 -54.0 -54.3 -54.3 -54.4 -54.1 -54.5 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 5 5 8 7 8 7 7 6 4 2 2 700-500 MB RH 54 49 45 46 44 43 45 45 53 58 63 57 52 MODEL VTX (KT) 10 10 11 12 11 11 12 11 11 10 11 10 11 850 MB ENV VOR 43 36 17 22 38 38 52 -5 -3 -11 22 7 13 200 MB DIV 51 34 19 34 29 22 22 6 55 19 49 26 -2 700-850 TADV 10 8 8 5 1 4 0 0 1 7 4 1 -1 LAND (KM) 153 157 158 174 170 212 319 413 433 384 280 232 136 LAT (DEG N) 29.8 30.1 30.4 30.8 31.1 31.5 31.8 31.9 32.5 33.4 35.0 36.6 37.4 LONG(DEG W) 79.6 79.6 79.7 79.6 79.5 78.1 75.8 73.7 72.7 72.5 72.9 73.2 74.0 STM SPEED (KT) 3 3 3 4 4 8 10 7 5 6 8 6 5 HEAT CONTENT 42 42 41 41 38 57 32 19 26 23 20 12 21 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 5/ 3 CX,CY: 0/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 653 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 23.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 5. 11. 18. 23. 27. 30. 31. 32. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 2. 5. 7. 9. 10. 7. 2. -3. -9. -12. -16. -21. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 12. 13. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -9. -11. -13. -16. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -2. -3. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -5. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 9. 12. 17. 22. 24. 25. 22. 22. 19. 17. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL962015 INVEST 09/18/15 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 26.8 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.0 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.8 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 62.4 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 103.3 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.4 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 40.8 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 33.4 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 16.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 14% is 1.1 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 8% is 1.1 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL962015 INVEST 09/18/15 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL962015 INVEST 09/18/2015 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED