* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST CP952015 09/18/15 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 30 33 38 48 60 66 66 62 59 61 52 V (KT) LAND 25 27 30 33 38 48 60 66 66 62 59 61 52 V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 27 28 30 35 40 45 47 45 41 37 29 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 9 3 11 16 19 20 26 35 33 36 38 41 46 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 11 5 -1 0 5 0 0 6 10 5 0 -2 SHEAR DIR 288 268 204 224 245 247 251 241 256 258 268 250 258 SST (C) 29.8 29.7 29.6 29.5 29.5 29.6 29.6 29.1 28.1 26.6 25.0 23.4 21.0 POT. INT. (KT) 161 160 159 158 159 161 162 157 147 132 116 99 73 200 MB T (C) -51.8 -51.5 -51.3 -51.5 -51.5 -51.0 -51.4 -51.3 -51.5 -51.3 -52.6 -53.0 -54.3 TH_E DEV (C) 10 11 11 11 10 10 9 8 8 7 6 3 0 700-500 MB RH 63 60 60 60 63 63 63 61 61 61 57 55 58 MODEL VTX (KT) 12 12 13 14 16 19 23 25 25 25 26 30 26 850 MB ENV VOR 58 64 68 70 80 106 105 112 85 76 40 -24 -74 200 MB DIV 35 48 45 45 45 67 101 73 59 55 103 61 55 700-850 TADV 4 7 6 7 9 11 10 24 32 46 32 42 40 LAND (KM) 1777 1727 1678 1621 1564 1394 1228 1116 1148 1307 1559 1874 1836 LAT (DEG N) 16.7 17.2 17.7 18.1 18.4 19.7 21.6 24.0 26.7 29.9 33.3 37.0 40.0 LONG(DEG W) 175.8 175.5 175.2 174.8 174.3 173.0 171.7 170.5 169.9 169.5 169.3 168.9 167.7 STM SPEED (KT) 5 6 6 6 7 10 12 14 15 17 18 17 16 HEAT CONTENT 46 46 48 54 63 70 36 48 13 8 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):335/ 7 CX,CY: -2/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 730 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 96.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 2. 8. 15. 23. 29. 32. 33. 33. 30. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 2. -2. -9. -16. -23. -29. -36. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. 0. 2. 4. 6. 7. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -2. -5. -7. -9. -10. -10. -9. -7. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 4. 9. 16. 19. 20. 19. 21. 26. 20. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. 0. 4. 9. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 2. 3. 5. 5. 6. 5. 5. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 8. 13. 23. 35. 41. 41. 37. 34. 36. 27. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX CP952015 INVEST 09/18/15 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.5 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 134.4 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.2 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.8 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 51.4 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 43.6 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 94.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 71.0 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 50% is 3.8 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 30% is 3.5 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 22% is 3.6 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 17% is 3.9 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP952015 INVEST 09/18/15 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##