* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP912015 09/18/15 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 21 22 23 24 24 25 23 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 20 21 22 23 24 24 25 23 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 20 20 20 20 20 20 18 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 14 10 8 8 11 7 13 24 37 46 49 50 48 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -4 -1 -2 -1 1 0 0 4 1 -5 -5 -2 SHEAR DIR 50 50 39 1 357 309 254 227 212 203 204 218 236 SST (C) 29.2 29.0 28.8 28.5 28.2 27.2 25.8 24.8 23.3 27.5 21.5 20.0 19.4 POT. INT. (KT) 155 153 151 149 146 136 122 113 97 141 79 63 63 200 MB T (C) -51.1 -50.7 -50.9 -51.0 -50.9 -50.9 -50.9 -51.1 -51.4 -51.9 -53.0 -54.7 -56.0 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 7 7 6 4 3 3 4 4 5 4 700-500 MB RH 78 75 75 75 73 69 65 60 60 57 57 54 55 MODEL VTX (KT) 11 11 10 10 10 8 7 6 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 18 22 30 25 27 14 20 19 38 21 29 92 48 200 MB DIV 43 48 36 15 22 45 56 65 66 68 67 76 61 700-850 TADV 0 -1 -1 1 2 3 3 11 4 1 3 8 2 LAND (KM) 618 590 568 538 521 489 356 210 90 -52 -319 -646 -999 LAT (DEG N) 17.4 17.8 18.1 18.7 19.2 20.8 23.0 25.7 28.8 31.9 34.9 37.6 39.7 LONG(DEG W) 110.9 111.4 111.9 112.5 113.1 114.3 115.2 115.6 115.8 115.3 114.5 112.4 109.3 STM SPEED (KT) 6 6 7 8 9 11 13 15 15 15 16 16 16 HEAT CONTENT 25 20 14 10 7 2 0 0 0 11 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 7 CX,CY: -6/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 491 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 57.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 8. 14. 20. 22. 26. 27. 25. 21. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 6. 4. -1. -10. -20. -29. -37. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 6. 8. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -2. -3. -6. -8. -10. -10. -10. -7. -5. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -7. -8. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -1. -4. -6. -7. -7. -9. -9. -9. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 3. -1. -9. -18. -26. -32. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP912015 INVEST 09/18/15 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.2 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 130.8 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.3 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.5 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 15.2 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 32.8 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 48.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 74.4 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 27% is 2.0 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 19% is 2.2 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 13% is 2.1 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP912015 INVEST 09/18/15 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##