* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * NINE AL092015 09/19/15 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 25 26 26 25 27 27 25 24 25 27 28 V (KT) LAND 25 25 25 26 26 25 27 27 25 24 25 27 28 V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 24 23 22 20 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 33 32 31 33 34 27 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 2 1 -1 2 0 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 236 237 227 217 223 216 200 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.3 28.4 28.5 28.6 28.7 29.1 29.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 140 141 143 145 146 152 156 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 129 130 132 134 136 140 142 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -54.0 -54.2 -54.3 -54.1 -54.1 -54.4 -54.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 9 10 10 10 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 55 53 52 52 53 49 51 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 9 8 7 7 7 6 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 55 56 50 55 64 57 79 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 13 4 31 23 20 41 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 2 1 -1 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1529 1528 1532 1483 1437 1353 1250 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 18.1 18.4 18.7 19.0 19.3 19.9 20.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 47.9 48.6 49.3 50.1 50.9 52.6 54.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 7 7 8 8 9 8 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 25 25 26 30 34 42 48 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 7 CX,CY: -6/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 740 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 31.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 36.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 6. 11. 17. 22. 26. 29. 31. 33. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 2. 0. -4. -11. -16. -22. -25. -26. -28. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -9. -11. -12. -14. -15. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 2. 2. 0. -1. 0. 2. 3. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL092015 NINE 09/19/15 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 32.6 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 31.3 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 63.2 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 107.2 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.5 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 28.0 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 18.2 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 33.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 9% is 0.7 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL092015 NINE 09/19/15 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL092015 NINE 09/19/2015 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED