* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * TEN AL102015 09/19/15 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 33 36 39 41 46 49 51 52 52 53 55 57 V (KT) LAND 30 33 36 39 41 46 49 51 52 52 53 55 57 V (KT) LGE mod 30 32 35 37 39 42 45 48 51 54 58 60 63 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 9 10 11 10 12 17 8 4 7 7 8 9 8 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 2 0 0 0 -1 8 6 5 5 7 5 1 SHEAR DIR 270 285 292 291 280 289 288 270 225 258 265 301 264 SST (C) 27.7 27.7 27.7 27.8 27.8 27.9 28.1 28.3 28.6 28.8 28.7 28.7 28.8 POT. INT. (KT) 131 132 133 135 135 136 138 140 143 144 142 142 142 ADJ. POT. INT. 124 126 128 131 132 130 131 129 129 126 122 122 122 200 MB T (C) -53.7 -53.8 -53.8 -53.5 -53.7 -54.1 -53.9 -54.2 -53.8 -54.0 -53.8 -54.0 -53.8 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 8 7 8 700-500 MB RH 75 72 72 72 72 68 67 67 67 64 64 61 57 MODEL VTX (KT) 11 11 12 12 12 13 12 11 10 9 10 12 12 850 MB ENV VOR 28 15 15 12 16 14 18 14 17 7 2 3 19 200 MB DIV 65 34 17 23 36 25 58 36 18 22 11 2 2 700-850 TADV -6 -5 -3 -2 -3 -4 -5 -1 -4 -2 -2 0 -2 LAND (KM) 1857 1822 1791 1752 1722 1654 1636 1680 1733 1757 1759 1759 1757 LAT (DEG N) 13.6 14.0 14.4 15.0 15.6 16.7 17.8 19.0 20.0 20.6 20.5 20.5 20.6 LONG(DEG W) 37.3 38.0 38.7 39.7 40.8 43.2 45.1 46.6 47.6 48.1 48.0 48.0 48.1 STM SPEED (KT) 6 8 10 12 13 11 10 8 5 2 1 1 0 HEAT CONTENT 25 24 23 18 10 6 8 16 18 18 17 17 18 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 5 CX,CY: -3/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 543 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 79.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 1. 3. 6. 10. 15. 19. 22. 24. 25. 26. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 7. 8. 8. 9. 9. 10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -8. -9. -10. -10. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -9. -9. -10. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. -2. -3. -4. -3. -2. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 9. 11. 16. 19. 21. 22. 22. 23. 25. 27. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL102015 TEN 09/19/15 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.4 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.5 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 74.0 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 98.0 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.4 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 20.0 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 35.0 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 70.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 23% is 1.9 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 13% is 1.7 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 7% is 1.5 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 6% is 1.9 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL102015 TEN 09/19/15 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL102015 TEN 09/19/2015 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)