* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL962015 09/19/15 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 22 25 28 31 37 41 45 45 45 46 48 47 V (KT) LAND 20 22 25 28 31 37 41 45 45 45 46 48 47 V (KT) LGE mod 20 20 20 21 21 22 25 28 32 35 39 41 44 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 36 33 25 21 21 18 26 24 29 20 24 22 26 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -2 -7 -3 0 -4 -4 -4 -1 0 -2 0 -1 SHEAR DIR 246 245 241 228 223 226 223 217 231 232 226 237 260 SST (C) 29.5 29.4 29.2 28.9 28.8 28.8 28.3 28.0 27.8 27.7 27.9 28.0 27.7 POT. INT. (KT) 159 157 154 150 148 149 141 136 131 130 133 135 130 ADJ. POT. INT. 134 132 130 127 126 126 119 112 106 104 107 107 102 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -53.3 -53.6 -53.3 -53.3 -53.5 -53.7 -54.5 -54.3 -54.7 -54.7 -55.2 -55.5 TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 5 8 8 6 7 6 5 5 4 2 2 700-500 MB RH 55 52 52 51 52 58 53 48 48 52 54 60 52 MODEL VTX (KT) 11 11 12 12 12 12 11 11 10 10 11 12 11 850 MB ENV VOR 42 20 22 25 11 53 72 48 31 29 10 9 -32 200 MB DIV 48 13 22 36 50 34 26 18 -2 37 50 28 23 700-850 TADV 10 6 3 -1 -1 -13 -4 -11 -2 1 5 0 -4 LAND (KM) 343 364 359 339 320 375 565 739 834 790 685 573 536 LAT (DEG N) 30.0 30.5 31.0 31.6 32.2 33.2 33.8 34.1 34.6 35.2 36.2 37.4 38.1 LONG(DEG W) 77.5 77.0 76.5 75.8 75.0 72.8 70.1 68.0 66.8 66.7 66.8 66.7 66.2 STM SPEED (KT) 7 7 8 9 10 11 10 7 4 4 5 5 3 HEAT CONTENT 48 44 37 30 24 25 16 20 20 22 25 40 31 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 60/ 7 CX,CY: 6/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 546 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 5.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 2. 5. 11. 18. 22. 26. 29. 30. 31. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 2. 5. 8. 9. 10. 8. 2. -3. -7. -9. -11. -14. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 11. 13. 15. 16. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -9. -11. -14. -16. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 0. 1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -7. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -8. -8. -8. -7. -6. -6. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 8. 11. 17. 21. 25. 25. 25. 26. 28. 27. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL962015 INVEST 09/19/15 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 27.2 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.1 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 65.4 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 109.5 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.5 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 36.6 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 33.8 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 1.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL962015 INVEST 09/19/15 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL962015 INVEST 09/19/2015 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)