* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FIVE CP052015 09/19/15 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 33 37 40 44 52 61 62 56 46 44 38 35 V (KT) LAND 30 33 37 40 44 52 61 62 56 46 44 38 35 V (KT) LGE mod 30 33 35 37 39 43 47 47 41 34 28 21 16 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 8 15 20 26 25 28 26 37 33 35 29 33 41 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 10 4 -2 -2 0 4 4 0 9 9 9 3 5 SHEAR DIR 228 215 228 244 251 250 244 250 259 275 286 270 273 SST (C) 29.5 29.5 29.5 29.5 29.5 29.6 29.3 28.5 27.4 26.1 24.9 23.7 22.0 POT. INT. (KT) 160 158 158 158 159 160 158 151 140 126 113 101 83 200 MB T (C) -51.3 -51.1 -51.4 -51.5 -51.3 -51.8 -51.5 -51.8 -51.6 -52.8 -52.8 -53.2 -53.9 TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 10 9 9 9 9 8 7 6 5 2 1 700-500 MB RH 61 61 62 64 64 61 59 58 58 55 54 60 60 MODEL VTX (KT) 12 13 13 14 15 18 23 24 23 21 23 21 22 850 MB ENV VOR 56 54 58 73 91 81 104 95 70 41 8 -30 -88 200 MB DIV 63 50 45 47 76 61 114 48 43 40 80 37 13 700-850 TADV 6 6 6 5 6 13 21 32 35 43 53 36 30 LAND (KM) 1624 1579 1535 1488 1444 1362 1280 1216 1252 1379 1567 1734 1833 LAT (DEG N) 18.1 18.6 19.0 19.6 20.2 21.6 23.4 25.6 28.2 30.9 33.6 36.2 38.1 LONG(DEG W) 174.8 174.5 174.2 173.9 173.6 173.0 172.2 171.1 170.2 169.5 169.0 167.5 164.7 STM SPEED (KT) 10 5 6 7 7 9 11 13 14 14 14 15 14 HEAT CONTENT 52 56 60 60 61 48 30 13 4 2 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 25/ 13 CX,CY: 5/ 12 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 507 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 6.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 3. 8. 15. 21. 26. 28. 28. 27. 25. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. -2. -7. -15. -22. -28. -32. -37. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. -6. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 4. 9. 16. 19. 17. 13. 17. 14. 15. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 4. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. 1. 4. 9. ZONAL STORM MOTION -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -9. -9. -9. -8. -8. -8. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 2. 4. 5. 6. 7. 6. 6. 4. 3. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 7. 10. 14. 22. 31. 32. 26. 16. 14. 8. 5. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX CP052015 FIVE 09/19/15 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 1.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 18.8 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 128.6 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 6.2 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.9 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 57.8 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 56.2 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 99.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.5 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 72.2 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 42% is 3.2 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP052015 FIVE 09/19/15 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##