* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST CP952015 09/19/15 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 33 37 40 44 51 61 62 56 46 44 38 35 V (KT) LAND 30 33 37 40 44 51 61 62 56 46 44 38 35 V (KT) LGE mod 30 33 35 37 39 43 47 47 41 34 27 21 16 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 8 14 20 26 25 28 27 36 33 35 29 34 42 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 10 5 -2 -2 0 4 4 0 9 10 9 3 5 SHEAR DIR 228 213 229 246 251 251 243 250 260 275 287 271 274 SST (C) 29.5 29.5 29.5 29.5 29.6 29.6 29.2 28.5 27.4 26.0 24.9 23.6 22.0 POT. INT. (KT) 160 158 158 159 160 161 157 151 139 125 114 100 83 200 MB T (C) -51.3 -51.1 -51.4 -51.5 -51.3 -51.8 -51.5 -51.8 -51.6 -52.9 -52.9 -53.2 -53.9 TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 10 9 9 9 9 8 7 6 5 2 1 700-500 MB RH 61 61 62 64 65 61 60 59 58 56 54 59 60 MODEL VTX (KT) 12 13 13 14 15 18 23 24 23 21 23 21 22 850 MB ENV VOR 56 54 58 73 91 81 104 95 69 39 7 -30 -90 200 MB DIV 62 49 45 47 76 61 112 48 42 40 80 37 12 700-850 TADV 6 7 6 5 6 13 23 33 37 44 53 36 31 LAND (KM) 1628 1582 1538 1486 1436 1352 1271 1206 1250 1386 1561 1739 1830 LAT (DEG N) 18.0 18.5 18.9 19.5 20.1 21.6 23.5 25.6 28.3 31.0 33.6 36.3 38.1 LONG(DEG W) 174.8 174.5 174.2 173.9 173.5 172.9 172.1 171.0 170.1 169.5 168.9 167.4 164.6 STM SPEED (KT) 10 5 6 7 8 9 11 13 14 13 14 14 14 HEAT CONTENT 53 58 61 60 57 40 34 20 4 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 25/ 13 CX,CY: 5/ 12 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 508 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 6.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 3. 8. 15. 21. 26. 28. 28. 27. 25. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. -2. -7. -14. -22. -28. -32. -37. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 1. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. -6. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 4. 9. 16. 19. 17. 13. 17. 14. 15. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 4. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. 1. 4. 10. ZONAL STORM MOTION -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -9. -9. -9. -8. -8. -8. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 2. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 5. 4. 3. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 7. 10. 14. 21. 31. 32. 26. 16. 14. 8. 5. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX CP952015 INVEST 09/19/15 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 1.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 18.4 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 128.8 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 6.5 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.9 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 57.8 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 55.8 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 99.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.5 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 72.4 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 43% is 3.3 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 28% is 3.2 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP952015 INVEST 09/19/15 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##