* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP912015 09/19/15 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 22 23 24 24 25 26 26 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 20 22 23 24 24 25 26 26 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 20 20 20 20 20 19 18 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 14 10 10 10 8 6 16 27 34 46 40 48 45 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 0 -1 -1 0 2 0 2 4 -1 -3 -6 -1 SHEAR DIR 49 39 16 11 1 284 244 231 208 201 207 227 243 SST (C) 28.8 28.6 28.4 28.1 27.8 26.6 25.1 24.3 24.0 28.0 21.2 20.2 19.7 POT. INT. (KT) 151 149 147 145 142 130 115 107 105 146 75 64 62 200 MB T (C) -50.7 -50.8 -51.0 -51.0 -50.7 -50.9 -50.7 -51.1 -51.3 -51.9 -53.1 -54.9 -55.4 TH_E DEV (C) 8 7 7 6 7 5 4 3 4 4 7 4 4 700-500 MB RH 75 74 74 70 68 66 61 60 59 60 57 55 56 MODEL VTX (KT) 11 11 10 10 9 8 7 7 7 4 2 2 2 850 MB ENV VOR 23 30 35 34 22 25 22 27 32 39 40 75 45 200 MB DIV 55 40 24 28 33 41 56 58 85 52 48 61 30 700-850 TADV -2 -1 0 0 0 -1 6 5 3 1 0 3 -4 LAND (KM) 635 608 589 564 553 456 365 151 -8 -112 -440 -733 -999 LAT (DEG N) 17.5 18.0 18.4 19.1 19.7 21.6 24.0 26.7 29.8 32.7 35.4 37.6 39.4 LONG(DEG W) 112.0 112.5 113.0 113.6 114.1 115.1 115.8 115.9 115.6 114.6 113.1 111.1 108.3 STM SPEED (KT) 7 7 8 8 9 11 13 15 15 15 14 14 14 HEAT CONTENT 20 13 9 7 4 1 0 0 0 49 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 361 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 75.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 8. 14. 18. 21. 26. 26. 24. 20. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 6. 4. -2. -11. -20. -29. -35. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 5. 6. 6. 7. 9. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -9. -10. -9. -7. -5. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -5. -5. -6. -9. -13. -12. -12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 6. 0. -9. -20. -27. -32. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP912015 INVEST 09/19/15 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.3 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 126.9 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.5 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.5 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 10.6 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 36.0 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 71.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.2 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 72.6 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 28% is 2.1 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 21% is 2.4 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 14% is 2.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 8% is 2.0 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP912015 INVEST 09/19/15 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##