* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * NINE AL092015 09/19/15 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 24 22 20 22 24 25 V (KT) LAND 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 24 22 20 22 24 25 V (KT) LGE mod 25 24 24 23 22 20 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 33 36 37 38 36 30 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 0 0 0 2 -4 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 231 222 220 224 222 201 197 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.4 28.5 28.6 28.7 28.9 29.2 29.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 142 143 144 146 149 154 157 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 133 132 133 136 138 140 141 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -54.2 -54.2 -54.1 -54.1 -54.2 -54.1 -53.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 9 10 10 10 10 11 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 53 50 50 53 53 50 53 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 9 8 7 8 7 6 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 59 50 53 55 49 32 54 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 5 24 26 13 29 19 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 1 -1 2 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1512 1494 1449 1401 1358 1266 1160 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 18.4 18.7 19.0 19.3 19.6 20.2 20.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 49.0 49.8 50.5 51.3 52.2 53.8 54.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 9 8 8 9 9 7 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 27 31 35 38 41 50 49 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 10 CX,CY: -8/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 824 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 24.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 20.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 6. 11. 18. 22. 26. 30. 32. 33. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 1. -1. -5. -12. -18. -24. -28. -29. -31. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -8. -9. -11. -12. -13. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -3. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -3. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. -5. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -5. -3. -1. 0. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL092015 NINE 09/19/15 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 36.0 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 24.4 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 64.0 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 109.4 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.5 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 34.4 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 19.4 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 17.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 9% is 0.8 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL092015 NINE 09/19/15 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL092015 NINE 09/19/2015 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)