* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * IDA AL102015 09/19/15 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 38 41 43 46 50 52 55 55 54 54 55 55 V (KT) LAND 35 38 41 43 46 50 52 55 55 54 54 55 55 V (KT) LGE mod 35 38 40 43 45 49 51 52 54 56 58 58 57 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 9 12 12 13 13 12 10 6 9 14 19 18 21 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 0 0 1 0 7 9 6 8 6 8 8 -2 SHEAR DIR 295 295 292 286 284 282 293 282 276 274 293 293 299 SST (C) 27.7 27.7 27.7 27.8 27.9 28.0 28.2 28.5 28.7 28.9 28.8 28.7 28.7 POT. INT. (KT) 132 133 133 135 136 137 139 142 144 145 144 142 142 ADJ. POT. INT. 128 128 129 131 131 130 129 130 128 124 124 123 124 200 MB T (C) -53.8 -53.7 -53.2 -53.4 -53.7 -53.2 -53.5 -53.1 -53.4 -53.0 -53.5 -53.4 -53.9 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 8 8 8 8 8 9 700-500 MB RH 71 70 70 71 70 67 69 64 62 63 60 56 52 MODEL VTX (KT) 13 14 15 16 17 17 17 17 16 16 17 19 17 850 MB ENV VOR 17 15 15 15 10 11 8 3 -5 3 14 27 35 200 MB DIV 37 14 18 35 34 40 49 44 3 18 10 15 -18 700-850 TADV -8 -5 -2 -1 0 -1 0 0 -2 -1 -4 -1 -2 LAND (KM) 1829 1793 1763 1724 1694 1651 1662 1720 1790 1801 1804 1780 1761 LAT (DEG N) 14.1 14.7 15.2 15.8 16.3 17.4 18.5 19.6 20.6 21.0 20.8 20.5 20.4 LONG(DEG W) 38.0 38.9 39.8 40.9 42.1 44.2 45.9 47.0 47.7 47.9 47.7 47.7 47.9 STM SPEED (KT) 9 10 11 12 12 11 9 7 4 0 1 1 1 HEAT CONTENT 24 23 19 12 8 5 12 17 16 17 16 16 16 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 8 CX,CY: -6/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 635 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 75.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 10. 14. 17. 19. 21. 22. 22. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 6. 5. 4. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 2. 3. 1. 1. 1. 3. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 8. 11. 15. 17. 20. 20. 19. 19. 20. 20. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL102015 IDA 09/19/15 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.0 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.4 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 72.2 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 94.4 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.4 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 17.2 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 27.6 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 69.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 21% is 1.8 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 12% is 1.6 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 6% is 1.4 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 5% is 1.8 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL102015 IDA 09/19/15 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL102015 IDA 09/19/2015 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)