* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL962015 09/19/15 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 31 34 38 44 46 47 43 40 35 31 27 V (KT) LAND 25 28 31 34 38 44 46 47 43 40 35 31 27 V (KT) LGE mod 25 27 28 30 31 34 37 40 41 41 40 36 34 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 32 28 21 24 24 24 31 36 37 43 46 49 43 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -7 -2 -3 -4 -2 -4 -1 1 0 0 -6 -7 SHEAR DIR 243 239 224 219 237 225 236 225 236 215 217 228 257 SST (C) 29.3 29.2 29.0 28.9 28.7 28.7 28.4 28.3 28.6 28.6 26.0 23.4 22.3 POT. INT. (KT) 155 153 150 149 146 147 142 139 144 145 113 91 84 ADJ. POT. INT. 129 126 124 124 123 124 117 112 116 117 92 77 71 200 MB T (C) -53.1 -53.4 -53.3 -53.3 -53.2 -53.7 -54.3 -54.5 -54.6 -54.8 -54.9 -55.7 -56.3 TH_E DEV (C) 5 4 7 7 6 7 5 4 3 2 1 1 0 700-500 MB RH 49 48 46 46 49 51 49 53 52 56 58 49 49 MODEL VTX (KT) 12 11 12 11 12 12 11 11 10 11 11 11 12 850 MB ENV VOR 18 24 24 23 32 70 38 4 -23 -2 -11 -26 -60 200 MB DIV 18 27 47 42 28 71 22 36 33 35 43 -2 -9 700-850 TADV 4 2 0 -5 -2 -9 -2 0 8 7 3 -7 -9 LAND (KM) 277 248 231 219 226 276 437 530 537 415 248 126 71 LAT (DEG N) 30.9 31.4 31.9 32.4 32.8 33.6 34.2 35.0 36.0 37.6 39.3 40.6 41.1 LONG(DEG W) 77.9 77.6 77.4 76.7 76.0 73.8 71.4 70.1 69.8 70.0 70.1 70.0 70.1 STM SPEED (KT) 6 5 6 7 9 10 8 6 7 9 7 4 2 HEAT CONTENT 53 60 47 37 36 27 13 12 17 13 1 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 40/ 6 CX,CY: 4/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 610 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 7.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 5. 10. 16. 20. 24. 25. 25. 25. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 2. 4. 6. 8. 9. 6. 0. -7. -13. -18. -23. -29. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 8. 10. 12. 14. 16. 18. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -13. -16. -18. -21. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -7. -7. -7. -7. -6. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 9. 13. 19. 21. 22. 18. 15. 10. 6. 2. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL962015 INVEST 09/19/15 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 25.8 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.4 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.9 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 61.8 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 100.2 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.4 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 46.6 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 32.4 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 3.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL962015 INVEST 09/19/15 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL962015 INVEST 09/19/2015 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)