* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FIVE CP052015 09/19/15 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 33 36 39 41 46 50 51 48 43 36 34 40 V (KT) LAND 30 33 36 39 41 46 50 51 48 43 36 34 40 V (KT) LGE mod 30 32 34 36 37 37 37 36 33 28 22 18 15 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 11 22 25 23 24 26 27 28 31 39 41 30 26 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 8 -3 -1 4 6 2 4 5 11 5 -3 2 2 SHEAR DIR 218 232 243 242 241 253 242 251 257 250 241 219 228 SST (C) 29.5 29.5 29.6 29.6 29.6 29.3 28.7 27.9 26.1 24.5 22.5 20.4 18.7 POT. INT. (KT) 160 159 160 160 161 158 152 145 127 111 90 66 62 200 MB T (C) -51.0 -51.3 -51.4 -51.3 -51.4 -52.5 -52.1 -52.4 -52.0 -52.4 -53.3 -52.7 -50.7 TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 9 9 10 9 9 8 7 5 2 0 0 700-500 MB RH 59 60 63 63 62 60 58 58 57 61 60 58 53 MODEL VTX (KT) 12 13 14 14 15 16 17 17 18 18 18 18 20 850 MB ENV VOR 43 50 66 77 71 67 82 76 50 43 52 100 167 200 MB DIV 53 22 8 45 57 66 71 53 70 53 87 104 75 700-850 TADV 7 7 5 5 9 12 24 23 41 47 63 61 36 LAND (KM) 1544 1471 1402 1372 1346 1300 1316 1383 1569 1851 2173 2000 2008 LAT (DEG N) 18.4 19.1 19.8 20.5 21.2 23.3 25.0 27.3 30.6 34.3 38.4 40.9 42.2 LONG(DEG W) 174.1 173.6 173.1 173.0 172.8 172.4 172.3 172.2 172.3 172.6 173.4 175.4 178.3 STM SPEED (KT) 9 8 8 7 9 10 10 14 18 20 17 13 12 HEAT CONTENT 65 74 79 75 62 33 19 11 2 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 40/ 10 CX,CY: 6/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 504 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 88.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 3. 8. 14. 21. 25. 26. 25. 23. 19. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. -2. -7. -13. -22. -31. -36. -39. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 2. 4. 7. 10. 11. 12. 12. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -1. 2. 7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -2. -4. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 9. 9. 9. 9. 12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. 1. 5. 12. ZONAL STORM MOTION -1. -1. -3. -4. -6. -8. -10. -10. -9. -9. -8. -8. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 9. 11. 16. 20. 21. 18. 13. 6. 4. 10. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX CP052015 FIVE 09/19/15 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 1.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 20.9 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 129.9 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.6 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.7 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 71.0 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 37.0 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 84.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 71.0 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP052015 FIVE 09/19/15 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##