* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP912015 09/19/15 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 26 26 26 27 28 29 27 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 25 26 26 26 26 27 28 26 26 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 27 27 27 25 24 23 23 26 27 28 29 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 14 11 11 7 4 9 19 29 35 37 50 31 23 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 0 0 1 -1 0 0 1 -2 -8 -2 0 SHEAR DIR 40 21 18 18 351 242 232 223 214 211 220 234 268 SST (C) 28.8 28.5 28.3 27.9 27.3 26.1 26.0 29.2 29.7 22.4 20.8 20.0 19.7 POT. INT. (KT) 151 148 147 143 137 125 125 158 164 88 71 63 62 200 MB T (C) -50.8 -51.0 -50.9 -50.7 -50.8 -50.7 -50.9 -51.4 -51.9 -52.1 -52.9 -54.2 -54.8 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 6 5 4 5 6 7 5 4 1 700-500 MB RH 75 74 71 68 67 66 63 63 60 63 63 66 62 MODEL VTX (KT) 11 11 11 9 8 8 7 8 6 3 2 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 29 28 29 24 21 13 15 15 37 23 54 49 55 200 MB DIV 39 22 22 44 43 53 74 67 88 46 45 56 35 700-850 TADV -1 1 1 0 -1 3 7 5 7 7 5 13 58 LAND (KM) 582 534 494 450 426 240 100 -13 -91 -425 -775 -999 -999 LAT (DEG N) 18.0 18.7 19.3 20.2 21.1 23.5 26.1 29.0 31.8 34.5 37.1 39.3 40.7 LONG(DEG W) 112.0 112.4 112.8 113.3 113.7 114.2 114.3 113.7 112.5 110.9 108.7 105.9 102.7 STM SPEED (KT) 7 8 9 10 11 13 14 15 15 15 16 15 14 HEAT CONTENT 14 9 6 2 1 6 2 0 59 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):330/ 6 CX,CY: -2/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 605 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 22.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 51.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 3. 8. 13. 18. 24. 25. 24. 22. 18. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 6. 3. -3. -12. -22. -28. -31. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 2. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -2. -3. -6. -8. -9. -10. -9. -7. -4. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -3. -3. -4. -4. -6. -11. -13. -12. -12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 2. -10. -21. -26. -27. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP912015 INVEST 09/19/15 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 1.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.3 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 120.4 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.9 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 6.4 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 34.0 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 42.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 72.2 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 25% is 1.9 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 19% is 2.2 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 13% is 2.1 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP912015 INVEST 09/19/15 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##