* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * NINE AL092015 09/19/15 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 26 26 25 27 26 26 25 24 25 28 28 V (KT) LAND 25 26 26 26 25 27 26 26 25 24 25 28 28 V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 24 23 22 20 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 34 38 38 37 32 23 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -3 0 1 -1 1 -2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 220 216 220 218 209 192 180 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.4 28.5 28.6 28.8 29.0 29.2 29.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 141 143 145 148 151 154 160 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 129 133 134 137 139 142 147 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -54.2 -54.1 -54.1 -54.2 -54.3 -53.8 -53.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 9 10 10 10 10 10 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 51 50 53 53 49 53 50 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 7 7 8 7 6 6 4 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 53 52 64 58 39 70 37 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 33 30 14 15 23 23 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 0 2 0 0 2 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1497 1455 1408 1366 1329 1245 1101 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 18.4 18.7 19.0 19.3 19.6 20.2 21.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 49.4 50.2 51.0 51.8 52.6 54.0 55.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 6 8 8 8 8 8 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 27 33 38 41 44 50 47 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 4 CX,CY: -3/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 678 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 4.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 0.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 6. 11. 18. 22. 27. 30. 32. 33. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. -4. -10. -16. -21. -24. -25. -27. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -9. -10. -11. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -8. -9. -9. -8. -7. -6. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. 0. 3. 3. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL092015 NINE 09/19/15 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 35.8 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 4.2 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.2 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 62.4 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 109.1 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.5 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 36.6 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 23.0 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 0.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL092015 NINE 09/19/15 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL092015 NINE 09/19/2015 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)