* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * IDA AL102015 09/19/15 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 36 37 39 41 43 47 51 51 51 53 53 54 V (KT) LAND 35 36 37 39 41 43 47 51 51 51 53 53 54 V (KT) LGE mod 35 36 37 38 40 42 43 45 47 50 52 52 51 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 11 11 13 14 13 10 6 6 10 16 23 21 20 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 0 0 0 1 12 9 8 10 6 10 3 1 SHEAR DIR 288 287 285 281 277 288 283 262 264 281 293 289 286 SST (C) 27.8 27.8 27.9 27.9 28.0 28.1 28.4 28.6 28.7 28.7 28.7 28.7 28.8 POT. INT. (KT) 135 135 136 136 137 138 141 142 142 141 142 142 144 ADJ. POT. INT. 131 132 132 131 130 130 130 126 123 122 123 123 126 200 MB T (C) -53.7 -53.2 -53.4 -53.7 -53.6 -53.4 -53.7 -53.3 -53.5 -53.3 -53.6 -53.6 -54.0 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 8 7 8 8 9 9 700-500 MB RH 69 71 72 70 68 69 66 63 60 61 57 52 48 MODEL VTX (KT) 15 16 16 17 18 17 18 18 18 17 20 19 19 850 MB ENV VOR 14 18 21 15 17 19 14 15 8 14 26 35 51 200 MB DIV 18 31 36 36 47 45 41 32 22 10 17 -4 8 700-850 TADV -5 0 0 0 0 -3 -1 -3 -3 -3 -6 -1 0 LAND (KM) 1757 1718 1691 1669 1644 1659 1710 1749 1753 1753 1755 1755 1751 LAT (DEG N) 14.5 15.2 15.8 16.4 16.9 18.1 19.4 20.2 20.4 20.4 20.3 20.3 20.5 LONG(DEG W) 39.2 40.4 41.5 42.6 43.6 45.2 46.8 47.7 48.0 48.0 47.8 47.8 48.1 STM SPEED (KT) 12 13 12 11 10 10 8 4 1 0 1 1 2 HEAT CONTENT 20 14 8 7 7 9 14 15 17 17 16 16 17 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 10 CX,CY: -8/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 631 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 24.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 51.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 10. 14. 17. 19. 21. 21. 22. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 7. 7. 5. 3. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -5. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -8. -8. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. 3. 2. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 4. 6. 8. 12. 16. 16. 16. 18. 18. 19. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL102015 IDA 09/19/15 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.5 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 24.5 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 70.2 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 96.4 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.4 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 11.2 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 33.6 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 46.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 18% is 1.5 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 10% is 1.3 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 5% is 1.2 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 4% is 1.4 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL102015 IDA 09/19/15 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL102015 IDA 09/19/2015 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)