* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL962015 09/19/15 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 31 35 39 44 47 48 45 36 32 29 25 V (KT) LAND 25 28 31 35 39 44 47 48 45 36 32 29 25 V (KT) LGE mod 25 27 29 30 32 36 40 43 44 42 37 34 32 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP TROP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 25 21 23 22 20 28 27 37 42 51 46 41 36 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -5 -1 -4 -4 -2 -3 -2 1 1 0 -6 -6 -3 SHEAR DIR 237 222 223 236 242 230 240 227 214 205 213 229 256 SST (C) 29.3 29.2 29.0 28.8 28.7 28.7 28.5 28.3 28.0 25.9 24.5 24.4 24.2 POT. INT. (KT) 153 153 150 148 146 146 142 140 136 112 98 97 96 ADJ. POT. INT. 125 127 125 124 123 122 115 115 112 92 80 79 79 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -53.2 -53.1 -53.2 -53.5 -53.9 -54.7 -54.3 -54.2 -54.0 -54.7 -55.3 -56.4 TH_E DEV (C) 4 7 7 6 6 7 4 3 1 1 0 1 0 700-500 MB RH 48 45 44 46 48 50 52 59 61 53 46 42 51 MODEL VTX (KT) 11 11 10 11 12 11 11 11 12 10 10 10 10 850 MB ENV VOR 31 25 23 33 64 55 6 2 21 -5 -18 -64 -92 200 MB DIV 30 43 32 26 41 30 30 22 45 35 12 -22 -26 700-850 TADV 1 0 -5 -4 -9 -5 0 5 8 -5 -19 -5 -3 LAND (KM) 277 255 244 236 237 325 388 372 304 199 108 91 35 LAT (DEG N) 30.9 31.4 31.9 32.4 32.8 33.4 34.1 35.3 37.0 38.9 40.0 40.1 40.4 LONG(DEG W) 77.9 77.5 77.2 76.4 75.6 73.3 72.0 71.8 72.1 72.2 71.8 72.0 73.1 STM SPEED (KT) 3 6 7 8 9 9 5 8 9 8 3 3 4 HEAT CONTENT 49 56 44 37 33 24 16 15 14 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 0/ 0 CX,CY: 0/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 740 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 5.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 5. 10. 16. 20. 23. 24. 23. 24. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 2. 4. 6. 8. 9. 7. 1. -6. -13. -18. -22. -27. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 3. 3. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 8. 10. 12. 13. 16. 17. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -9. -13. -16. -19. -22. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -3. -3. -3. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -8. -8. -8. -7. -6. -6. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 10. 14. 20. 22. 23. 20. 12. 7. 4. 0. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL962015 INVEST 09/19/15 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 22.1 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.2 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 60.6 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 99.6 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.4 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 43.8 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 34.4 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 2.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL962015 INVEST 09/19/15 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL962015 INVEST 09/19/2015 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED