* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FIVE CP052015 09/19/15 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 31 33 36 37 43 45 44 36 29 25 23 25 V (KT) LAND 30 31 33 36 37 43 45 44 36 29 25 23 25 V (KT) LGE mod 30 30 30 30 30 29 27 24 20 16 DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 22 25 24 27 31 26 32 31 42 40 40 37 20 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 0 1 4 4 3 4 7 1 2 5 7 1 SHEAR DIR 230 243 246 240 245 249 251 252 255 241 223 200 197 SST (C) 29.6 29.6 29.6 29.6 29.5 29.0 28.2 27.1 25.5 24.4 23.0 21.0 16.7 POT. INT. (KT) 160 160 160 161 160 155 147 136 120 108 94 74 64 200 MB T (C) -51.3 -51.4 -51.2 -51.4 -52.0 -52.2 -52.6 -52.2 -52.9 -53.1 -53.0 -52.6 -53.0 TH_E DEV (C) 10 9 9 9 9 9 8 7 6 5 3 1 0 700-500 MB RH 60 63 65 63 62 61 58 60 60 59 58 56 62 MODEL VTX (KT) 11 13 13 14 14 16 16 16 14 13 13 14 13 850 MB ENV VOR 44 59 70 65 57 72 64 58 36 52 69 122 190 200 MB DIV 51 28 48 66 57 80 70 66 54 91 75 95 78 700-850 TADV 7 7 7 9 14 19 30 26 36 40 52 29 14 LAND (KM) 1474 1419 1368 1329 1297 1280 1348 1466 1648 1894 2192 2065 1866 LAT (DEG N) 19.0 19.7 20.4 21.3 22.2 24.2 26.4 29.0 31.8 34.6 37.4 40.4 43.6 LONG(DEG W) 173.6 173.3 172.9 172.7 172.4 172.1 172.2 172.2 172.3 172.9 174.1 175.8 178.0 STM SPEED (KT) 8 8 8 9 10 10 12 13 14 14 16 17 18 HEAT CONTENT 75 78 77 59 45 26 15 1 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 45/ 8 CX,CY: 6/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 553 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 79.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 3. 8. 14. 20. 24. 25. 24. 22. 19. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -4. -10. -19. -30. -38. -44. -46. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -2. -3. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 6. 9. 12. 13. 13. 12. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. 1. 6. 11. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 3. 3. 6. 7. 7. 4. 2. 3. 4. 3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 5. 7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. 1. 4. 10. ZONAL STORM MOTION -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -9. -9. -9. -8. -8. -8. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 6. 7. 13. 15. 14. 6. -1. -5. -7. -5. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX CP052015 FIVE 09/19/15 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 25.8 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 130.2 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.9 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.6 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 66.8 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 50.0 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 73.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 70.8 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP052015 FIVE 09/19/15 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##