* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP912015 09/19/15 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 24 23 23 24 25 26 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 25 25 24 23 23 24 23 27 25 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 26 26 26 24 21 24 24 26 27 28 29 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 15 14 10 4 4 14 26 31 41 43 45 32 31 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -1 0 0 0 0 1 3 -4 -2 -7 1 2 SHEAR DIR 29 18 21 350 298 238 231 216 211 224 229 254 282 SST (C) 28.7 28.4 28.0 27.4 26.8 26.3 25.7 31.4 24.9 21.4 20.5 20.2 20.4 POT. INT. (KT) 151 148 144 138 132 128 122 173 114 77 67 63 64 200 MB T (C) -51.0 -50.9 -50.7 -50.8 -51.0 -50.6 -51.3 -51.6 -52.2 -52.6 -53.6 -54.5 -55.2 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 6 5 5 4 6 4 7 4 4 0 700-500 MB RH 73 70 67 65 66 65 62 61 59 62 60 57 55 MODEL VTX (KT) 11 11 9 8 8 7 8 8 4 2 2 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 31 33 25 21 13 7 13 29 29 34 48 29 14 200 MB DIV 17 22 40 40 40 61 63 87 64 51 40 23 -6 700-850 TADV 0 1 0 -1 -1 1 5 1 1 3 11 15 7 LAND (KM) 521 459 416 378 302 181 -19 33 -251 -573 -883 -999 -999 LAT (DEG N) 18.6 19.5 20.3 21.4 22.4 24.9 27.7 30.5 33.2 35.7 37.9 39.2 39.4 LONG(DEG W) 112.0 112.5 112.9 113.3 113.7 114.1 114.1 113.3 112.0 110.2 108.0 105.3 103.1 STM SPEED (KT) 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 15 14 13 10 9 HEAT CONTENT 11 7 4 3 1 1 0 35 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):320/ 5 CX,CY: -2/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 563 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 31.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 35.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 8. 12. 19. 23. 23. 22. 20. 16. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 5. 1. -7. -18. -29. -35. -38. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 5. 7. 8. 10. 11. 11. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -8. -7. -4. -1. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -9. -11. -12. -12. -11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. -8. -8. -8. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. -1. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. -7. -18. -27. -32. -37. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP912015 INVEST 09/19/15 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 1.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.5 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 117.8 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 31.3 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 5.2 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 31.8 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 32.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 72.4 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 19% is 1.5 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP912015 INVEST 09/19/15 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##