* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FIVE CP052015 09/19/15 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 29 29 30 33 41 44 46 38 30 29 28 30 V (KT) LAND 30 29 29 30 33 41 44 46 38 30 29 28 30 V (KT) LGE mod 30 29 29 28 28 28 29 28 25 21 17 DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 23 25 23 26 27 28 32 33 35 47 39 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 4 7 3 1 3 6 10 12 5 -1 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 241 248 245 250 262 247 253 267 243 232 235 N/A N/A SST (C) 29.5 29.4 29.5 29.5 29.5 29.0 28.1 27.0 25.8 24.4 22.5 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 158 158 159 159 160 156 146 134 123 110 91 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.4 -51.1 -51.3 -51.7 -52.0 -51.6 -52.0 -51.8 -52.0 -51.4 -52.0 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 10 10 10 9 8 8 7 6 2 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 62 63 61 59 58 56 51 46 43 44 52 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 13 14 15 14 16 20 21 23 20 19 20 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 57 73 72 59 62 86 83 92 96 130 119 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 38 56 54 52 72 83 43 56 50 72 73 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 5 7 7 9 10 20 18 25 23 43 46 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1577 1523 1473 1440 1412 1378 1438 1566 1750 2012 2242 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 18.6 19.5 20.3 21.1 21.8 24.0 26.8 29.1 31.2 34.3 38.5 N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 174.5 174.2 173.9 173.7 173.5 173.1 173.0 173.3 174.1 174.9 175.5 N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 6 9 8 8 9 13 13 11 13 18 21 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 54 55 55 56 55 32 15 1 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 30/ 2 CX,CY: 1/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 704 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 32.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 3. 8. 14. 20. 24. 25. 24. 25. 26. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -4. -10. -18. -29. -38. -42. -43. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -1. 0. 1. 3. 6. 8. 10. 12. 12. 12. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -2. 3. 2. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 3. 9. 11. 15. 10. 8. 10. 10. 10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 5. 6. 8. 9. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. 1. 4. 9. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. -5. -5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -9. -9. -9. -10. -9. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -1. 0. 3. 11. 14. 16. 8. 0. -1. -2. 0. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX CP052015 FIVE 09/19/15 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 24.8 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 128.9 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.1 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.5 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 55.0 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 54.4 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 26.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 71.6 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP052015 FIVE 09/19/15 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##