* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP912015 09/19/15 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 24 22 21 22 22 24 24 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 25 24 22 21 22 22 26 25 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 25 24 24 23 22 21 22 23 26 27 28 29 30 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 16 12 7 4 5 17 30 35 37 53 38 32 34 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 0 0 -2 0 1 3 -2 -6 -1 2 0 SHEAR DIR 30 29 26 309 245 226 220 212 215 227 233 252 264 SST (C) 28.7 28.3 27.8 27.3 26.9 27.2 30.6 29.2 21.8 20.4 19.8 19.7 20.0 POT. INT. (KT) 151 148 143 138 134 137 173 159 81 67 62 61 61 200 MB T (C) -50.8 -50.5 -50.6 -50.8 -50.6 -50.8 -51.4 -51.8 -52.1 -52.8 -54.7 -55.4 -56.0 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 7 6 6 5 5 5 5 5 4 3 4 700-500 MB RH 70 68 67 68 68 66 63 58 61 62 60 56 50 MODEL VTX (KT) 11 10 9 9 9 7 8 7 3 2 3 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 33 24 22 12 13 8 17 40 33 81 57 43 -6 200 MB DIV 22 42 44 52 53 69 61 76 84 46 57 37 -16 700-850 TADV 2 0 -2 -1 2 7 1 -1 4 2 10 22 -4 LAND (KM) 435 365 323 256 157 38 16 -110 -449 -783 -999 -999 -999 LAT (DEG N) 19.4 20.4 21.4 22.6 23.8 26.4 29.3 32.1 35.0 37.6 39.5 40.4 40.4 LONG(DEG W) 111.9 112.3 112.7 113.1 113.4 113.7 113.6 112.8 111.6 109.7 107.1 104.2 101.9 STM SPEED (KT) 8 11 12 12 13 14 14 15 15 15 13 10 9 HEAT CONTENT 11 9 7 4 7 4 5 88 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 5/ 6 CX,CY: 1/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 634 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 29.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 37.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 8. 14. 21. 23. 22. 21. 18. 14. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 5. 0. -9. -21. -32. -38. -41. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 4. 5. 7. 9. 10. 12. 12. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -8. -6. -3. 1. 4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -2. -5. -3. -5. -11. -13. -11. -10. -10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -5. -5. -5. -5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -3. -5. -7. -8. -8. -8. -8. -8. -8. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -3. -4. -3. -3. 0. -1. -12. -24. -30. -34. -38. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP912015 INVEST 09/19/15 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.7 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 117.6 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 29.2 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 7.6 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 42.6 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 36.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 73.4 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 20% is 1.6 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP912015 INVEST 09/19/15 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##