* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * NINE AL092015 09/20/15 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 21 21 22 23 24 26 26 27 30 37 45 49 V (KT) LAND 20 21 21 22 23 24 26 26 27 30 37 45 49 V (KT) LGE mod 20 18 17 16 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 40 39 37 35 33 25 28 17 19 13 11 5 16 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 -2 -3 0 1 3 3 3 0 -6 -3 -5 SHEAR DIR 212 207 202 198 196 189 192 214 208 221 176 244 209 SST (C) 28.6 28.8 29.0 29.3 29.6 29.8 30.0 30.1 29.9 29.6 29.4 29.1 28.7 POT. INT. (KT) 144 148 152 157 163 166 169 171 168 162 158 153 146 ADJ. POT. INT. 131 138 142 148 152 152 152 154 149 142 137 131 123 200 MB T (C) -54.1 -54.1 -54.3 -53.9 -53.8 -53.8 -53.5 -53.6 -53.4 -53.5 -53.6 -53.9 -54.0 TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 10 10 10 10 11 11 11 11 11 9 9 700-500 MB RH 57 56 54 54 57 53 53 50 49 53 56 61 64 MODEL VTX (KT) 8 8 6 6 6 5 4 3 2 1 LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 89 77 65 62 72 36 25 -4 -13 -38 -17 0 30 200 MB DIV 4 11 18 27 19 22 14 2 -5 6 0 27 40 700-850 TADV 2 0 0 2 2 1 2 4 6 3 7 3 7 LAND (KM) 1505 1470 1443 1397 1318 1205 1135 1083 1064 1083 1153 1167 993 LAT (DEG N) 19.2 19.7 20.2 21.0 21.7 23.1 24.4 25.4 26.5 27.6 28.7 29.9 31.2 LONG(DEG W) 50.0 50.8 51.7 52.6 53.6 55.3 56.9 58.5 60.3 62.2 63.9 65.3 66.5 STM SPEED (KT) 7 9 11 12 11 10 9 9 10 10 9 9 8 HEAT CONTENT 30 37 43 52 66 38 41 42 53 36 19 14 9 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):310/ 4 CX,CY: -2/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 602 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 31.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 49.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 5. 11. 19. 25. 30. 34. 37. 38. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 4. 3. -2. -7. -11. -14. -14. -12. -12. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. PERSISTENCE -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -7. -8. -9. -9. -9. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 6. 7. 10. 17. 25. 29. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL092015 NINE 09/20/15 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 36.8 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 31.2 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 66.8 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 122.3 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.6 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 45.6 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 15.8 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 46.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 8% is 0.7 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL092015 NINE 09/20/15 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL092015 NINE 09/20/2015 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED