* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * IDA AL102015 09/20/15 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 35 35 35 35 36 36 36 36 37 40 43 46 V (KT) LAND 35 35 35 35 35 36 36 36 36 37 40 43 46 V (KT) LGE mod 35 35 35 35 35 36 37 38 40 42 44 47 48 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 11 13 14 14 10 3 8 13 14 18 19 27 22 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 3 2 5 6 5 5 8 5 6 1 -4 -4 SHEAR DIR 284 287 277 269 281 248 232 273 280 297 287 305 293 SST (C) 27.9 27.9 28.0 28.1 28.2 28.4 28.7 28.8 28.8 28.7 28.6 28.7 28.8 POT. INT. (KT) 136 136 137 138 139 141 144 144 144 142 140 143 145 ADJ. POT. INT. 133 131 132 132 131 129 128 125 125 124 122 126 128 200 MB T (C) -53.5 -53.8 -53.7 -53.4 -53.5 -54.0 -53.6 -54.1 -54.1 -54.3 -54.0 -54.2 -54.1 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 8 8 7 8 7 8 8 8 8 9 700-500 MB RH 70 67 66 65 68 68 69 68 68 65 63 59 57 MODEL VTX (KT) 17 16 15 15 14 13 12 11 10 11 11 12 11 850 MB ENV VOR 32 18 12 8 12 5 1 -1 10 22 31 30 25 200 MB DIV 69 47 22 40 40 33 13 24 0 14 26 22 -5 700-850 TADV -3 -5 -9 -8 -9 -7 -3 -4 -3 -2 -2 -2 -2 LAND (KM) 1655 1630 1603 1608 1623 1676 1727 1719 1689 1676 1669 1708 1772 LAT (DEG N) 15.7 16.3 16.8 17.5 18.1 19.3 20.1 20.4 20.2 20.0 19.7 20.0 20.7 LONG(DEG W) 41.9 43.0 44.1 45.0 45.9 47.3 48.0 48.4 48.6 48.6 48.4 48.2 48.0 STM SPEED (KT) 13 12 11 11 10 7 4 1 1 1 1 3 3 HEAT CONTENT 9 8 9 10 12 17 17 17 19 19 20 18 16 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 13 CX,CY: -11/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 721 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 16.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 10. 14. 17. 19. 21. 22. 22. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 7. 7. 6. 5. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -4. -3. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -7. -8. -8. -9. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -9. -9. -8. -7. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -5. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 5. 8. 11. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL102015 IDA 09/20/15 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.4 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.8 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.9 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 69.2 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 96.7 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.4 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 9.6 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 43.6 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 11.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL102015 IDA 09/20/15 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL102015 IDA 09/20/2015 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)