* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FIVE CP052015 09/20/15 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 29 28 28 29 31 31 28 22 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 30 29 28 28 29 31 31 28 22 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 30 29 28 27 26 24 23 21 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 24 24 29 27 22 30 28 44 47 38 25 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 7 4 0 3 3 7 6 -1 3 0 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 242 251 264 264 246 249 253 261 252 245 229 N/A N/A SST (C) 29.4 29.5 29.5 29.4 29.2 28.5 27.1 25.4 24.3 23.0 21.2 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 157 160 160 159 158 151 137 119 107 93 74 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.1 -51.3 -51.9 -52.4 -51.9 -52.4 -52.7 -53.6 -53.7 -53.7 -54.6 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 9 9 9 8 7 6 5 2 0 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 64 62 60 61 61 57 59 61 60 63 58 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 12 12 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 74 65 51 59 77 68 53 35 40 30 24 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 62 52 46 71 95 72 68 77 82 61 60 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 5 12 14 11 13 20 24 33 44 57 63 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1537 1484 1438 1400 1372 1357 1444 1647 1903 2158 2033 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 19.3 20.3 21.2 22.3 23.4 25.8 28.9 32.0 34.8 37.5 40.0 N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 174.3 174.0 173.7 173.4 173.1 172.5 172.0 172.1 172.8 173.4 174.0 N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 7 10 10 11 12 14 16 15 14 13 12 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 54 53 55 53 38 16 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 15/ 3 CX,CY: 1/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 689 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 20.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 3. 8. 14. 19. 21. 22. 20. 21. 21. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -3. -10. -22. -33. -40. -44. -45. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 2. 5. 8. 11. 13. 15. 15. 15. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. 1. 5. 5. 5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -5. -5. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. 1. 5. 11. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. -5. -5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -9. -11. -11. -12. -12. -13. -12. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -2. -2. -1. 1. 1. -2. -8. -15. -18. -19. -16. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX CP052015 FIVE 09/20/15 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 25.1 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 128.9 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.0 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.6 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 50.6 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 65.2 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.4 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 16.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 72.8 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP052015 FIVE 09/20/15 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##