* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * IDA AL102015 09/20/15 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 35 34 35 36 36 36 38 38 40 43 46 48 V (KT) LAND 35 35 34 35 36 36 36 38 38 40 43 46 48 V (KT) LGE mod 35 35 35 35 35 36 38 39 41 43 45 47 49 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 13 14 13 9 6 6 10 11 18 17 24 19 23 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 2 5 6 4 5 7 6 5 4 -2 -3 -5 SHEAR DIR 287 277 264 280 285 201 248 276 289 290 295 302 297 SST (C) 27.9 28.0 28.1 28.2 28.3 28.6 28.7 28.8 28.7 28.7 28.8 28.8 28.8 POT. INT. (KT) 136 137 138 139 140 143 143 143 142 142 144 144 144 ADJ. POT. INT. 133 132 132 131 131 129 125 124 124 124 126 125 124 200 MB T (C) -53.8 -53.7 -53.4 -53.5 -53.8 -53.7 -53.9 -54.0 -54.3 -53.9 -54.2 -53.9 -54.3 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 8 8 8 7 8 8 7 8 8 9 9 700-500 MB RH 67 66 64 67 67 67 68 68 68 64 60 57 57 MODEL VTX (KT) 16 15 15 14 14 13 11 10 10 11 11 11 11 850 MB ENV VOR 18 12 10 12 8 5 -7 -1 14 25 30 21 18 200 MB DIV 47 22 40 40 40 22 19 25 -4 26 10 9 -2 700-850 TADV -4 -9 -8 -9 -10 -3 -2 0 -2 0 -2 0 -1 LAND (KM) 1634 1607 1592 1600 1616 1671 1697 1689 1678 1686 1696 1711 1734 LAT (DEG N) 16.3 16.8 17.4 18.0 18.5 19.6 20.2 20.2 19.9 19.9 20.3 20.4 20.5 LONG(DEG W) 43.0 44.1 45.2 46.0 46.9 48.1 48.5 48.6 48.5 48.4 48.6 48.5 48.3 STM SPEED (KT) 13 12 11 10 9 5 2 0 1 1 2 1 1 HEAT CONTENT 8 9 10 13 16 20 18 19 19 19 19 18 17 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 14 CX,CY: -12/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 735 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 27.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 23.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 10. 14. 17. 19. 21. 21. 22. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 7. 8. 7. 5. 3. 2. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -4. -3. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -7. -8. -8. -8. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -7. -8. -8. -7. -7. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 3. 5. 8. 11. 13. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL102015 IDA 09/20/15 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.2 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 27.6 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 68.6 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 96.8 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.4 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 11.2 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 37.8 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 20.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 17% is 1.4 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 9% is 1.2 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 5% is 1.1 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL102015 IDA 09/20/15 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL102015 IDA 09/20/2015 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)